Trump Leads in South Carolina GOP Primary, Haley’s Hopes Dim

The South Carolina Republican Primary, a key event in the 2024 election cycle, is currently underway. Former President Donald Trump is expected to dominate the state over former governor Nikki Haley, whose chances hinge on a strong showing in her home state.

Voting began at 7 a.m. EST and will continue until 7 p.m., with voters allowed to cast their ballots as long as they are in line by closing time. Results are anticipated shortly after polls close, mirroring the swift announcement of results in the recent Democratic primary, which was called for President Joe Biden just 15 minutes after the first results were reported.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Trump holds a significant lead of 27 percentage points over Haley, who is projected to receive 34% of the vote. However, Haley leads Trump by 21 points among liberals and moderates, according to a recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll of voters who have either cast their ballots or are very likely to vote in the primary.

Despite only 4% of registered voters participating in the state’s Democratic primary earlier this month, there is an expectation of a higher turnout for the Republican contest. South Carolina’s primary elections are open, meaning registered voters can participate in either party’s primary, but they can only vote in one.

Trump’s campaign has been critical of Haley’s efforts, describing them as “broken down, out of ideas, out of gas and completely outperformed by every measure,” and projecting that Trump will win all 50 of South Carolina’s delegates.

South Carolina has 3.2 million registered voters, with about 25% participating in the 2016 Republican primary, totaling just over 745,000 people.

Looking ahead, Michigan will hold the next Republican primary on Tuesday, where Trump is expected to win by a significant margin, with nearly 80% of the vote according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Overall, the South Carolina primary is seen as a crucial step in Trump’s path to securing the Republican nomination, with Haley vowing to stay in the race until Super Tuesday on March 5, even if she loses in her home state. She has positioned herself as an alternative to both Biden and Trump, aiming to capture voters who are wary of a Trump re-election. In 2016, Trump lost only two counties in South Carolina, Richland and Charleston, which are the state’s second- and third-most populous counties, respectively.