Microsoft: Russia Starts 2024 Election Influence Campaign

Microsoft’s latest report reveals that Russia’s election influence campaign for the 2024 presidential election has commenced. While utilizing some new AI-driven tactics, the campaign seems to have started slower than in previous election cycles.

The analysis shows that Russian election influence actors, consistent with those identified in past campaigns, have exhibited signs of activity in the last 45 days. However, their efforts are currently proceeding at a slower pace compared to the lead-ups to the 2016 or 2020 presidential elections. This slower tempo is likely due to a less contentious primary season this year, according to Microsoft.

In this election cycle, Russian influence efforts have largely targeted turning U.S. opinion against Ukraine and NATO. Microsoft’s analysis indicates that at least 70 Russian actors have been actively spreading Ukraine-related disinformation through both traditional and social media over the past two months.

Microsoft has identified several Russia-affiliated actors behind these influence operations, including the group known as Storm 1099, which was responsible for the extensive “Doppelganger” misinformation campaign in 2022. However, the most active actors are reportedly linked to the Russian Presidential Administration, highlighting the increasingly centralized nature of these influence campaigns. This marks a departure from the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, which were more closely associated with Russia’s Internet Research Agency and intelligence services.

Artificial intelligence is playing a role in shaping how these influence actors operate, although not as significantly as previously feared or in the ways officials expected. While concerns were raised about the potential use of deepfake videos, Microsoft’s report suggests that such efforts have largely failed to deceive audiences or gain traction. Instead, influence actors have found more success with “simple digital forgeries,” such as fake news stories with fabricated logos, a tactic they have employed for years. The report also notes that AI has been more convincing when used to alter or enhance existing content than when used to generate content from scratch. Additionally, AI-generated audio is generally more convincing than AI-generated videos. Interestingly, AI-generated content about lesser-known figures is more likely to deceive audiences than content about well-known figures.

These groups often follow similar tactics for circulating misinformation. For example, one group identified as Storm-1516 typically introduces misinformation on video channels, presenting the source as a whistleblower or independent journalist. The group then uses a network of covertly operated websites to amplify the information, leading it to be further disseminated and ultimately deceive audiences.

The U.S. has consistently accused Russia of using social media and other online tools to influence U.S. politics and sow division, particularly around election time. These efforts first came to light in 2016 when Russian-sponsored entities were identified attempting to sow discord and support then-candidate Donald Trump.

Despite mounting evidence from U.S. cybersecurity experts and intelligence agencies, Russia has long denied attempting to meddle in any U.S. election. Last month, Russia vowed it would not interfere in the 2024 election.