Biden Leads Trump in 2024 Polls, Kennedy Jr. Could Be Factor

President Joe Biden’s momentum in the 2024 election appears to be gaining strength, according to recent polls that show him pulling ahead of former President Donald Trump. Over the past two months, Trump’s early polling lead has eroded, coinciding with his legal troubles in Manhattan. Recent surveys indicate a shift in favor of Biden, with a Monday Marist poll showing Biden leading Trump 51% to 48% in a two-way race. When third-party candidates are included, Biden’s lead expands to five points. This marks a one-point swing in Biden’s favor since the last Marist/NPR/PBS NewsHour poll in early April.

Similarly, a Sunday NBC survey found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a head-to-head matchup but leading by two points when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, along with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are included on the ballot.

Morning Consult’s latest weekly poll, conducted from April 19-21, also shows Biden with a narrow one-point lead over Trump, contrasting with its previous poll where Trump led by two points. Morning Consult noted that the race remains closer than before Super Tuesday, when Trump consistently held a lead.

RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker indicates that Trump’s polling lead over Biden has dwindled by more than four percentage points since the end of January. Meanwhile, the Economist poll tracker shows that Trump and Biden have been tied since April 5th, marking the first time they’ve been tied since September.

Of the 13 polls released this month and included in RealClearPolitics’ polling average, Biden either beats or ties with Trump in six surveys, continuing a trend that began in March when Biden tied or beat Trump in 13 of 24 polls.

Biden’s recent surge in the polls correlates with his increased campaign activities and fundraising efforts in recent months. In contrast, Trump has been less visible, preoccupied with his legal challenges and holding fewer public events than Biden.

One surprising factor in the race is the candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent. Earlier surveys suggested Kennedy Jr. could draw more votes from Biden, given his Democratic background. However, recent polling indicates he could actually hurt Trump. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign has gained some traction, having been formally approved to appear on the ballots in Michigan and Utah. His campaign and supporting organizations claim to have gathered enough signatures to put him on the ballot in key swing states like Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, though these petitions are still awaiting verification.

Despite Biden’s recent polling success, polls indicate that he and the Democratic party have been losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters. For example, a Harvard Youth poll released last week found that Biden leads Trump by eight percentage points among people ages 18 to 29, compared to a 23-point margin at this point in the lead-up to the 2020 election. An April Axios/Ipsos poll shows Biden has only a nine-point advantage with Latino voters, compared to 29 points after his first year in office. Additionally, a recent Wall Street Journal survey found an increase in support among Black voters for Trump, with 30% of Black men and 11% of Black women indicating support for Trump, up from 12% and 6% respectively in 2020.

Looking ahead, Biden and Trump are on track for a historic rematch after securing their parties’ nominations. Despite historically low voter enthusiasm and relatively low favorability ratings for both candidates, the NBC poll found that 64% of voters said they were “very interested” in this year’s election, a 20-year low. Trump has focused his campaign on his legal issues, accusing prosecutors and judges of working to undermine his chances of winning the election at Biden’s behest, though there is no evidence to support this claim. Meanwhile, Biden has framed Trump as a threat to democracy, highlighting his role in the January 6 Capitol riots, and criticizing his appointment of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Immigration has also emerged as a key issue in the election, with border crossings reaching record highs under Biden and Congress failing to reach an agreement on new border controls.