Hotter Summer Ahead: AccuWeather’s 2024 Forecast

As meteorological summer approaches, AccuWeather’s latest forecast paints a picture of a summer that could be hotter than usual for much of the United States in 2024. The forecast suggests that this summer will continue a trend of above-average temperatures, with some of the most significant heatwaves expected to impact not only the South and Southwest but also extending across the Midwest, Northeast, and Great Plains regions.

Across the Northeast, Midwest, Great Plains, and Southwest, temperatures are projected to be at least two degrees higher than historical averages from June to August. Some areas, particularly along the Canadian border and in west Texas, could experience even more significant temperature spikes, with increases of three to four degrees above average.

While the South and Southwest faced intense heatwaves last year, this year’s forecast indicates that a different set of cities along the East Coast and in the Midwest could be in for above-average heat. For instance, Boston is expected to see between 16 and 22 days with temperatures exceeding 90 degrees, compared to just five such days last year. Similarly, New York, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Chicago are all expected to experience more hot days than usual.

Phoenix, known for its scorching summers, is forecasted to have between 174 and 182 days with temperatures over 90 degrees this summer. While this is slightly lower than the 185 days recorded last year, signs of a hot summer are already apparent, with Phoenix recording its earliest 100-degree day in six years on April 29.

Other cities that are expected to see an above-average number of days with temperatures exceeding 90 degrees include Minneapolis (25-30 days), Dallas (116-124 days), Denver (46-52 days), and Portland, Oregon (16-22 days).

AccuWeather’s forecast also suggests that a combination of factors, including a warm Atlantic basin and heatwaves along the East Coast, could contribute to a turbulent Atlantic hurricane season this summer and fall. Lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva believes that this year’s hurricane season will be “very active,” with the potential for as many as 25 named storms, surpassing last year’s count of 19 named storms.

Last summer, the United States witnessed over 6,500 daily heat records being broken, with an additional 3,500 records being tied. Despite the focus on the South and Southwest, Death Valley National Park in California almost set an all-time global temperature record, reaching 128 degrees in Furnace Creek, just shy of the 130-degree record set in 2021.

Additionally, Phoenix set a new record last September with its 55th day recording a temperature above 110 degrees, surpassing the previous record set just three years earlier. The majority of these scorching days came during a record-setting heat spell of 31 consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 110 degrees between June 30 and July 30.