Trump Leads Biden in 2024 Election Polls Despite Conviction

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden by two points in the most recent general election poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos. The poll reveals that 41% of voters would choose Trump, while 39% would vote for Biden if the election were held today, though one in five voters remain undecided.

Another poll by Economist/YouGov also shows Trump with a two-point lead, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates in the mix. Despite Trump’s conviction last month on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, 61% of voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said their vote would not be affected. However, some polls, such as Morning Consult’s weekly survey, indicate Biden has a slight edge, showing him leading for the first time in a month.

A CBS/YouGov poll found that 55% of likely voters do not consider Trump’s conviction a significant factor in their voting decisions. Voters prioritize issues like the economy, crime, and border security over the conviction. An AP-NORC poll shows that 48% of Americans agree with the conviction, including 32% of independents and 15% of Republicans.

Other surveys suggest Trump’s support remains steady despite the conviction. A Times/Siena survey found Trump leads Biden by one point, a slight decline from previous months. RealClearPolitics’ polling averages indicate Trump leads Biden by 0.8 percentage points in a two-way race, widening to 2.9 points when third-party candidates are included.

In key swing states such as Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Trump leads Biden in various polls. The Cook Political Report found Trump up by three points in these states, while a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Trump leading by four points overall across the battleground states.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy could impact the election outcome. A May Emerson poll indicates Trump’s lead over Biden increases from two to five points with Kennedy in the mix. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy draws votes from Biden supporters, particularly among voters aged 18-29 and Hispanic voters.

However, a New York Times analysis suggests polls may be skewed in Trump’s favor due to disengaged voters who may not participate in the 2024 election. Biden has led the last three Times/Siena polls among 2020 voters but trails among registered voters overall.

Polls indicate Biden and the Democratic Party are losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points, while third-party candidates swing the vote in Trump’s favor. The Times/Siena/Inquirer poll shows Biden tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in battleground states and trailing among younger voters.

Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch after securing their parties’ nominations. Both candidates have low favorability ratings, and voter enthusiasm is at a 20-year low. Trump’s campaign focuses on his legal issues, accusing the judicial system of bias, while Biden portrays Trump as a threat to democracy, highlighting his role in the Capitol riots and his influence on the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Polling consistently shows the economy, immigration, abortion, and inflation as top voter issues. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey finds voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy, crime, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but trust Biden more on abortion.