Biden Leads as Trump Loses Independent Support

President Joe Biden currently leads former President Donald Trump in a new survey, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment following Trump’s recent conviction in Manhattan. This conviction appears to have particularly impacted Trump’s support among independent voters, a crucial demographic in the upcoming 2024 election. Despite the overall race remaining tightly contested, Biden has managed to gain a slight advantage.

In Morning Consult’s latest weekly survey, Biden is ahead of Trump by one point for the second week in a row. This follows a period where Biden had been trailing Trump for a month. The survey suggests that Trump’s lead has eroded in the aftermath of his conviction, indicating a potential turning point in the election dynamics.

The PBS/Marist poll released Tuesday presents a tie between Biden and Trump, but with significant shifts among independent voters. Trump has lost six points among independents since the May survey conducted before his conviction, while Biden has gained eight points, now leading Trump by two points in this critical group. A Politico/Ipsos poll further substantiates this trend, revealing that 32% of independents are now less likely to support Trump after his conviction. This sentiment is echoed by 33% of voters overall, including 9% of Republicans.

A June Times/Siena survey also highlights a shift, showing that Trump’s lead has diminished by one point, while Biden’s support has increased by one point among a group of 2,000 voters polled in April and May, prior to Trump’s conviction. Despite these gains for Biden, Trump still maintains a narrow lead of 47% to Biden’s 46%, underscoring the close nature of the race.

Interestingly, many voters do not prioritize Trump’s conviction when deciding how to vote. The Politico/Ipsos poll found that 53% of respondents consider the conviction unimportant to their voting decision, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll reported that 61% said it wouldn’t impact their vote. Similarly, a CBS/YouGov poll released on June 9 found that 55% of likely voters said Trump’s conviction isn’t a factor in their voting decisions, with issues such as the economy, crime, and border security being deemed far more important.

According to an AP-NORC poll released June 12, about 48% of Americans agree with the Manhattan jury’s decision to convict Trump, including 32% of independents and 15% of Republicans. In contrast, 29% of respondents disapprove of the conviction, while 21% neither approve nor disapprove, indicating a mixed reaction among the public.

Currently, Trump leads Biden by 0.8 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker. This narrow margin underscores the highly competitive nature of the race.

In response to Trump’s conviction, Biden and top Democrats have been actively highlighting Trump’s status as a “convicted felon” in various interviews and public statements. Biden’s campaign recently launched a $50 million TV ad campaign in battleground states, portraying the election as a choice between a “convicted criminal” and a president “fighting for your family.”

In the seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the election—Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—Trump consistently leads Biden. Polls from various sources, including a May Cook Political Report survey, show Trump ahead by an average of three points in these states. A May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden by four points across the battleground states, and an April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll indicated Trump would beat Biden in five of the six swing states, with Wisconsin being the exception.

The presence of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could significantly influence the election’s outcome. Various polls show differing impacts: a May Emerson poll found Trump’s lead over Biden increases from two to five points with Kennedy in the race, while a Times/Siena/Inquirer survey suggests Kennedy draws votes primarily from Biden supporters. Kennedy’s support is particularly strong among younger voters and Hispanic voters, with a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll indicating that Trump’s lead remains unchanged with Kennedy on the ballot.

Polls may also be skewed by disengaged voters who are unlikely to participate in the 2024 election. A New York Times analysis found that Biden led the last three Times/Siena polls among 2020 voters but trailed among registered voters overall, suggesting a potential discrepancy in voter engagement.

Biden and the Democratic Party appear to be losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey shows Biden’s lead over Trump is narrow among voters under 45 and Gen Z/Millennials. However, with third-party candidates in the mix, Trump gains favor among these groups. Biden is also facing challenges in traditional Democratic strongholds like New York, where his lead over Trump has significantly decreased since 2020.

As Biden and Trump prepare for a historic rematch after securing their party nominations early, both face low favorability ratings and historically low voter enthusiasm. Trump’s campaign has focused heavily on his legal battles, accusing prosecutors of political bias, while Biden has framed Trump as a threat to democracy, highlighting Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol riots and his stance on abortion. Polls consistently show that the economy, immigration, abortion, and inflation are top concerns for voters, with Trump being trusted more on handling the economy and crime, while Biden is favored on abortion.