Three Trump-Endorsed Candidates Lose Primaries

In Colorado, Jeff Crank, a former conservative talk show host, achieved a decisive victory against Trump-endorsed state GOP party chair Dave Williams in the primary for a Colorado Springs-area district on Tuesday. Crank garnered a significant 68% of the vote when the Associated Press called the race. This strong showing has positioned Crank as the clear favorite to win the upcoming general election in November, where he will be vying for the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn. Given the district’s strong Republican leanings, Crank is expected to secure the seat without much difficulty.

In Utah, the GOP Senate primary resulted in a win for Rep. John Curtis, who has been a vocal critic of Trump and has not endorsed Trump’s 2024 presidential bid. Curtis defeated Trump-backed Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, securing the nomination to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Mitt Romney. Curtis’ victory is particularly noteworthy given his frequent criticisms of Trump, suggesting that the electorate favored his more moderate stance. The seat is considered safely Republican, indicating that Curtis will likely succeed Romney without significant opposition in the general election.

In South Carolina, the trend of Trump-endorsed candidates losing continued with nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs winning a primary runoff in the western part of the state. Biggs, who had the backing of Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, triumphed over Trump-endorsed pastor and Army veteran Mark Burns. Biggs’ victory underscores the diminishing influence of Trump’s endorsements in certain areas and highlights the effectiveness of McMaster’s support in swaying voters.

Research from the University of Amsterdam has shown that Trump’s endorsement typically boosts GOP primary candidates by an average of 14 points from 2018 through 2022. However, this endorsement appears to be less advantageous in general elections against Democrats, where it has been found to decrease GOP candidates’ chances by 1.5 percentage points on average. This data suggests that while Trump’s backing can be a significant advantage in primaries, it may become a liability in broader electoral contests.

Despite the setbacks for several Trump-endorsed candidates, there were notable successes in Colorado. Republican Rep. Celeste Maloy appeared poised to defeat combat veteran Colby Jenkins in a district that leans Democratic and includes Boulder. The primary race saw a split within the MAGA faction, with Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., endorsing Maloy, while Jenkins was supported by Vivek Ramaswamy and Sens. Mike Lee, R-Utah, Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. As of Wednesday morning, Maloy had secured 52% of the vote, although the Associated Press had not yet called the race. Additionally, Trump-backed Republican Dave Evans handily defeated Janak Joshi in Colorado’s competitive suburban Denver 8th Congressional District. This district had been narrowly won by Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in 2022, making Evans’ victory a significant win for Trump’s influence.

The Republican Party is currently striving to maintain its slim majority in the House of Representatives, following a narrow victory in the 2022 midterms. This outcome was less favorable than many in the party had anticipated, and several have attributed this underperformance to Trump’s endorsements of candidates who lost key races. Trump’s influence was also cited as a major factor in the GOP’s failure to gain control of the Senate, as Democrats managed to flip Pennsylvania and secure tough victories in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. This year, Democrats face a challenging battle to retain control of the Senate, with 23 seats up for election compared to 11 GOP seats, making the stakes particularly high for both parties.