First Hurricane of 2024 Likely This Weekend

A storm system currently moving west over the Atlantic Ocean is expected to develop into the second named tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters warn. This system is likely to bring heavy rain to the Caribbean islands over the weekend as it gains strength, potentially becoming the first hurricane of the year.

The storm, known as Tropical Depression Two, is traveling east of the Windward Islands in the Caribbean with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC predicts the storm will strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday night or Monday, bringing heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and a “dangerous storm surge” to the Windward Islands.

Currently, the storm—likely to be named Beryl—is situated roughly 1,400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. It is moving west at 15 to 20 mph toward the Lesser Antilles, which the NHC expects it to impact this weekend. Forecasters from Alabama NBC affiliate WVTM suggest the storm could then proceed into the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Projections show the storm could pass as far north as the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, and as far south as the waters off Venezuela.

Forecasters from The Weather Channel indicate that conditions are favorable for storm development. Low wind shear, which can disrupt hurricane formation, will allow the storm to strengthen as it moves west.

Last month, NOAA issued the most severe hurricane warning in its history, predicting between 17 and 25 named tropical storms before the end of the hurricane season on November 30. AccuWeather forecasters predicted a “record-setting pace” for the 2024 season, with up to 25 named tropical storms (with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or more), including eight to 12 hurricanes (at least 74 mph) and four to seven major hurricanes (at least 111 mph). These predictions surpass the 19 named storms of 2023 and the average of just over 14 named storms seen over the past three decades. NOAA attributes the potentially record-setting season to near-record hot sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which fuel hurricane development, and La Niña, a weather phenomenon that reduces disruptive wind shear in the Atlantic.

The first named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Alberto, made landfall in Mexico last week, causing heavy rain and flooding in northern Mexico and parts of southern Texas, resulting in at least three fatalities in Mexico.

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 passed quietly, but tropical storm activity is expected to increase in August and September when ocean waters are at their warmest. A calm start to the season is not unprecedented; in 2022, no tropical storms formed between early July and early September, a historic lull that ended with Hurricane Danielle. Hurricane Ian later became Florida’s deadliest hurricane in nearly 100 years.