Biden Leads Trump in Virginia; Trump Ahead in Pennsylvania

President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump by three points in Virginia but trails him by three points in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll. The poll indicates that Trump could become the first Republican presidential candidate to win Virginia since 2004. Trump leads Biden by three points in Pennsylvania, a critical state for Biden’s reelection bid. Meanwhile, Biden’s lead in Virginia has narrowed to three points, a significant drop from his 10-point victory there in 2020. This data comes from a New York Times/Siena poll conducted from July 9-12, reflecting a series of unfavorable polls for Biden after his June 27 debate performance.

According to RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker, Trump is ahead by 2.7 points, showing a 1.2-point swing in his favor since the debate. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker also indicates a 2.1-point increase for Trump, with him leading by 2.1 points. An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll found Biden and Trump tied among registered voters, with Trump gaining a one-point lead if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considered an option. Notably, 67% believe Biden should withdraw from the race, and 85% view him as too old to serve another term. Among Biden’s supporters, 54% think he should drop out, and 81% believe he’s too old for another term. The latest Emerson College poll shows Trump leading Biden by three points, with similar trends observed in surveys by Morning Consult and a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from June 28-July 2. The Wall Street Journal also found Biden trailing Trump by six points, marking Trump’s largest lead in Journal surveys since 2021.

A CBS/YouGov poll in key battleground states shows Trump leading Biden by three points, a shift from trailing by one point the previous month. However, an NPR/PBS/Marist survey indicates Biden would beat Trump head-to-head, 50% to 48%, but would trail by one point with third-party candidates in the race. Despite calls from nearly 20 members of Congress and prominent pundits for Biden to step down, he remains firm on running. However, Rep. Nancy Pelosi has hinted that Biden’s decision might not be final, encouraging him to make a definitive choice soon. Polls suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris could perform better than other potential Democratic replacements, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. However, Harris and Biden show similar performance levels against Trump, with some polls favoring one over the other.

Polls before the debate consistently showed Trump leading Biden in crucial swing states. A May Cook Political Report survey and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll both found Trump leading Biden by an average of three to four points across these states. In a close race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could influence the outcome. A May Emerson poll found Trump’s lead over Biden widens from two points to five with Kennedy Jr., Cornell West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix. Kennedy Jr. has notable support among young and Hispanic voters, potentially swaying key demographics. Polls suggest that Biden and the Democratic Party are losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found voters under 45 favor Biden over Trump by just four points, with the vote swinging towards Trump when third-party candidates are included.

Biden and Trump are heading for a historic rematch, both securing their party nominations early. Voter enthusiasm is at a historic low, with both candidates having favorability ratings below 45%. Trump’s campaign focuses on his legal issues, while Biden emphasizes Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol riots and his Supreme Court appointments. Polls consistently show that voters trust Trump more on the economy and crime, while Biden is favored on abortion issues.