Trump Leads Biden in Key 2024 Battleground States: Latest Polls

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, recent polling data suggests a challenging path for President Joe Biden, who won six critical swing states in 2020. According to RealClearPolitics’ averages, former President Donald Trump currently leads Biden in all these pivotal states, which could significantly influence the election outcome.

In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 5.7 points, an increase of 1.7 points since early June. This shift is evident in all six polls tracked by RealClearPolitics since June 11. In 2020, Biden won Arizona by a narrow margin of fewer than 11,000 votes. In Georgia, Trump maintains a 3.9-point lead, though this is a slight decrease of nearly one point over the past six weeks. The average of five polls since May 30 consistently shows Trump with at least a three-point advantage.

Trump leads Biden by just 1.3 points in Michigan, the closest margin among the swing states. This average is based on six polls dating back to June 21, with only one poll showing Biden ahead. Biden had flipped Michigan in 2020. Despite Biden’s victory in Nevada by three points in 2020, current polls indicate Trump would win by five points. This trend is consistent across six polls from June 1 onward. Trump holds a 4.5-point average lead in Pennsylvania, with all six polls since June 27 showing him ahead. Biden had narrowly won Pennsylvania by one point in 2020, reversing Trump’s 2016 victory. In Wisconsin, Trump leads by three points based on an average of six polls since June 28. This contrasts with Biden’s narrow win in 2020, where he edged out Trump by less than one point.

These six swing states collectively carry 77 Electoral College votes, crucial to the 270 needed to secure the presidency. Virginia has emerged as an unexpected battleground. A July 9-12 New York Times/Siena poll indicates Biden leads by just three points, a notable shift from his 10-point win in 2020.

Following the June 27 debate, Trump has expanded his lead over Biden. Most surveys since then show Trump leading, and voter concerns about Biden’s age appear to be growing. Nationally, Trump is currently ahead by 2.7 points in head-to-head polls, a two-point increase since early June. The impact of the recent assassination attempt against Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania remains uncertain. A Morning Consult poll of 2,045 registered voters conducted on Monday shows Trump leading by one point, a slight decrease from the two-point lead reported in a July 12-14 poll. The shooting, which resulted in one fatality and serious injuries to others, has led to 38% of voters blaming Trump for the incident.

If Trump’s leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada persist, Biden would need to secure victories in all three Rust Belt states, along with a portion of electoral votes from Maine and Nebraska, which allocate some of their votes proportionally. Biden’s lower poll numbers in these key states are largely attributed to reduced support from younger, Hispanic, and Black voters.

Trump and his allies had previously attempted to challenge the 2020 election results in these swing states through various legal actions and schemes. In Georgia, Trump and 18 others were charged in August of last year with a racketeering scheme to overturn the election results. In Wisconsin, two attorneys and an aide were charged with felony forgery for attempting to submit fraudulent paperwork to Congress. In Arizona, 18 individuals, including former Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, faced similar charges for their alleged attempts to overturn the election. As the election nears, these developments will likely continue to influence the dynamics of the race.