Trump Gains on Biden Amid Calls for Biden to Withdraw

Former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Joe Biden in recent weeks, according to various poll averages, though the race remains tight. Biden is set to continue his campaign despite growing calls for him to drop out after last month’s debate.

In RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker, Trump leads by 3 points, showing a 1.5-point gain since the debate. FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker indicates Trump leads by 3.2 points, a 3-point increase from June 27. Morning Consult’s weekly registered voter surveys show Trump up by 4 points, with a 2-point rise after the assassination attempt on him last weekend. The CBS News/YouGov survey conducted July 16-18 reports Trump leading 52%-47% among likely voters, up from 50%-48% in early July. Post-debate surveys from the New York Times/Siena College and the Wall Street Journal show Trump leading by 6 points. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads by 3 points, and he trails by just 3 points in Virginia, a state he lost by 10 points in 2020. An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll finds Biden and Trump tied among registered voters, but Trump leads by 1 point if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an option. Notably, 67% of respondents believe Biden should withdraw, and 85% say he’s too old to serve another term.

Despite no public push from top Democratic leaders, in private meetings, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have expressed concerns about Biden’s odds of winning. Even pre-debate, Biden faced headwinds, with polls showing Trump leading in key swing states. A May Cook Political Report survey and Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll indicated Trump leading by 3-4 points across battleground states.

Kamala Harris is the most likely replacement for Biden if he withdraws. She performs similarly to Biden against Trump in polls, with some surveys showing her faring better and others showing the opposite. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to sway the election. A May Emerson poll found Trump’s lead widens from 2 to 5 points with Kennedy and other third-party candidates in the mix. Kennedy draws significant support from younger voters and Hispanics.

Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch, with both having low favorability ratings. Voter enthusiasm is at a 20-year low, with key issues being the economy, immigration, abortion, and inflation. Trump focuses on his legal troubles, claiming bias against him, while Biden portrays Trump as a threat to democracy, citing the Jan. 6 Capitol riots and the overturning of Roe v. Wade by Trump-appointed justices.

It remains to be seen how potential replacement candidates would fare against Trump. Polls suggest Kamala Harris might perform slightly better than Biden, but the full impact of a long campaign remains uncertain. Continued polling will reveal whether Trump’s lead solidifies or if Biden can regain ground as the election approaches.