Biden Out of 2024 Race; Democrats to Find New Candidate

In a dramatic turn of events, President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he will not seek reelection, ending weeks of intense pressure from leading Democrats. His decision came via a surprise letter, in which he also endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor for the Democratic nomination. Harris, being the current Vice President, is seen as the most natural choice to replace Biden on the general election ticket. Her established national profile provides her with a significant advantage over other potential candidates, who would need to quickly build their recognition during a shortened campaign. Additionally, Harris can immediately access Biden’s campaign funds since she is already on the ticket.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has been actively involved in Democratic campaigns beyond California, sparked speculation last year about a possible “shadow campaign” for the presidency. Newsom, along with Harris and other potential candidates, had previously pledged support for Biden. He has since dismissed these rumors, aligning himself with Biden’s campaign before the recent announcement.

Several Democratic governors with growing national profiles are also being mentioned as potential Biden replacements. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are frequently cited, especially after their decisive gubernatorial victories in 2022. Senator Bernie Sanders, a year older than Biden, has not ruled out a presidential run in the event of an open primary. In a 2022 memo, an advisor to Sanders mentioned that he could consider a run, despite Sanders’ previous call for unity within the party in a July 13 op-ed.

Former Democratic presidential contenders such as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Senators Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, are also potential candidates. However, none of these individuals had previously expressed interest in running in place of Biden. Booker publicly defended Biden, while Klobuchar had raised concerns about Biden’s candidacy’s future. Representative Dean Phillips, who challenged Biden in the 2024 Democratic primary, focused on Biden’s age but garnered little support before withdrawing from the race.

An ongoing, though unfounded, theory suggests that Michelle Obama might be elevated as the Democratic nominee for 2024 due to her high favorability ratings. Despite this speculation, Obama has consistently stated that she has no interest in running for president and will not seek the position.

Biden’s withdrawal opens the door for a new Democratic nominee, who could be chosen at the Democratic National Convention. This is in contrast to Biden’s strong primary performance earlier this year, where he nearly swept the primaries and secured a majority of the party’s delegates. Biden’s announcement follows a particularly troubling debate performance that heightened concerns about the 81-year-old president’s age. His performance in the June 27 debate against Trump was marked by disjointed responses, a lack of reaction to Trump’s statements, and a generally incoherent presentation. This led to significant panic within the Democratic Party, with operatives, lawmakers, and donors privately exploring options to replace Biden on the ticket. Despite his initial defiance and excuses citing illness, travel fatigue, and Trump’s “lies,” Biden’s eventual decision to step aside reflects the party’s growing concerns.

While third-party candidates are unlikely to challenge Biden’s former position, their candidacies could gain traction as they leverage Biden’s withdrawal to build enthusiasm. Notable independents such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West may see this as an opportunity to increase support for their long-shot campaigns.