Harris’s Poll Stand Against Trump Following Biden’s Exit

Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the leading candidate to succeed President Joe Biden after his unexpected withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race and subsequent endorsement of Harris. Despite the change in leadership, Harris’s performance in polls against Donald Trump is similar to that of Biden’s. Recent polls conducted after the June 27 presidential debate indicate that Harris’s standing against Trump mirrors Biden’s. Trump has consistently led Biden by a narrow margin, and the trends remain consistent even after recent developments, including an attempted assassination of Trump. Harris’s polling results are comparable to Biden’s, suggesting little shift in voter preference with the change in candidates.

In a CBS News/YouGov poll from last week, Trump led Harris by three points (51% to 48%), while Biden trailed Trump by five points (52% to 47%). This poll had a margin of error of 2.7 points. An Economist/YouGov poll, conducted from July 13 to 16, found Biden would lose to Trump by 41% to 43%, with Harris performing slightly worse at 39% to 44% (margin of error 3.1). A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday—after the Trump assassination attempt—showed both Biden and Harris statistically tied with Trump. However, 69% of respondents felt Biden was too old for government work (margin of error 3.1). A July 9 survey by Bendixen & Amandi revealed Harris narrowly leading Trump by 42% to 41% (margin of error 3.1), whereas Biden, along with other potential replacements like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, trailed Trump.

A YouGov poll from July 3-6 found that more Democrats and independents preferred Biden over Harris as the nominee, with 47% favoring Biden compared to 32% for Harris, and 21% undecided (margin of error 4). According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis, Harris’s chance of winning the Electoral College is slightly higher than Biden’s (38% versus 35%), but Biden has better odds of securing swing states and the Electoral College overall (48% versus 31%). The Reuters/Ipsos poll from July 2 showed Harris would lose to Trump by one point, while Biden was tied with Trump. Potential Biden replacements like Whitmer, Newsom, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker would all perform worse against Trump compared to Biden and Harris. A CNN/SSRS poll from June 28-30 showed Harris outperforming Biden and other potential candidates in a hypothetical match-up with Trump, though she would still lose by two points compared to Biden’s six-point deficit.

Key numbers reveal Trump currently leads Biden by 3.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, down from 0.7 points on June 28 and 0.2 points on June 27. Notable findings include former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, not typically mentioned as a potential Biden replacement, surpassing Trump by a wider margin (43% to 41%) according to the Bendixen & Amandi poll. When paired with Harris as the vice presidential nominee, this hypothetical ticket leads Trump by 43% to 40%. Former First Lady Michelle Obama, another long-shot candidate, would significantly outperform Harris, Biden, and other potential replacements, with a 50% to 39% lead over Trump in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Harris, as the likely successor to Biden, could face a “mini primary” where other candidates might vie for Biden’s delegates through high-profile party events like debates and town halls. Harris has several advantages, including name recognition and the potential to inherit Biden’s $91 million campaign war chest. However, she also faces challenges, such as negative reviews of her vice-presidential performance, reports of office dysfunction, and relatively low approval ratings. Biden withdrew from the race on Sunday after resisting calls to step aside. He had attempted to revive his candidacy through a media blitz, rallying Congressional allies, and firmly rejecting calls for resignation. State-level polls reflect similar patterns. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from July 9-12 found Harris performing slightly better than Biden in Pennsylvania and Virginia. In Pennsylvania, Biden was down by three points while Harris was down by one, and in Virginia, Harris led Trump by five points compared to Biden’s three-point lead. Conversely, an Emerson College poll released Thursday showed both Biden and Harris trailing Trump by two points in Virginia.