Trump Expands Lead Over Biden and Harris After RNC, Poll Shows

Former President Donald Trump has increased his lead in the 2024 presidential race following the Republican National Convention (RNC), according to a recent HarrisX survey. The poll, conducted from July 19-21, reveals that Trump now leads both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris by six points (53% to 47%). This marks a two-point rise in Trump’s lead over Harris and a four-point increase over Biden compared to a previous survey conducted from July 13-15, which came right after an assassination attempt against Trump. Notably, the earlier poll included respondents who were undecided but leaning towards a candidate.

The July 19-21 poll was conducted before Biden’s surprising announcement on Sunday that he was withdrawing from the race and endorsing Harris as his successor. As a result, Harris was still considered a hypothetical candidate in this survey, which sampled 2,753 registered voters with a margin of error of 1.9 percentage points.

In the latest poll, Harris trails Trump by nine points when respondents had the option to select “don’t know/unsure,” a two-point increase from previous polls taken on July 13-15 and June 28-30, which showed Trump leading Harris by seven points. When the poll included undecided voters, Biden trailed Trump by eight points.

The impact of Trump’s RNC speech on voter sentiment was mixed. The speech, which focused on his standard themes of immigration, election fraud, and allegations of politically motivated legal attacks, had no effect on the voting preferences of 46% of respondents. Meanwhile, 22% reported being less likely to vote for Trump, and 33% said they were more inclined to support him. Among independent voters, 28% felt more likely to back Trump following the speech, while 19% felt less likely. Within the Republican base, 5% reported decreased support for Trump, whereas 9% of Democrats indicated an increased likelihood of supporting him.

Harris enjoys a higher approval rating among specific demographics compared to Biden. Among young Democrats aged 18-34 and Hispanic Democrats, Harris’s approval stands out. Specifically, Harris’s approval rating among Hispanic Democrats is 68%, compared to Biden’s 62%, and her approval among young Democrats is 62%, versus Biden’s 55%. This contrasts with Biden’s decreased support among these groups since the 2020 election.

Harris’s performance in this poll is consistent with other surveys taken after Biden’s June 27 debate performance, which led to a significant Democratic backlash against him. Post-debate polls show Trump holding a narrow lead over both Biden and Harris, with variations depending on the poll. For example, a CBS News/YouGov poll from July 16-18 found Trump leading Harris by three points (51%-48%) and Biden by five points (52%-47%). Similarly, a July 13-16 Economist/YouGov poll showed Biden trailing Trump by two points and Harris by five points.

Trump’s lead over Biden has grown in the wake of their critical June 27 debate, which ignited a Democratic revolt and led to Biden’s announcement that he would withdraw from the race. Biden’s endorsement of Harris, who swiftly declared her candidacy for the presidency, has created significant turmoil within the Democratic Party. Since the debate, Trump has achieved several notable victories: surviving an assassination attempt, accepting his party’s nomination for a third term, and persuading a judge to dismiss a federal case accusing him of mishandling classified documents. His RNC speech, the longest in the convention’s history, began with a brief recount of the assassination attempt but quickly shifted focus to attacks on Democrats. Trump described former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as “crazy” and criticized Biden, stating that “the 10 worst presidents in the history of the United States . . . will not have done the damage that Biden has done.”