Trump Leads Harris by Narrow Margin in Post-Biden Polls

Former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris in recent polls following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race. According to a CNN/SSRS online poll conducted from July 22-23, Trump leads Harris by three percentage points, with 49% to Harris’s 46%. Similarly, a Morning Consult poll shows Trump ahead by two points (47% to 45%), and an NPR/PBS/Marist poll indicates a one-point lead for Trump (46% to 45%).

In contrast, a Reuters/Ipsos poll from Monday and Tuesday shows Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%. When including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, Harris’s lead increases to four points (42% to 38%). Additionally, an Economist/YouGov poll from Sunday to Tuesday shows Trump with a slight lead, 44% to Harris’s 41%, with Kennedy receiving 5%. Earlier polls from July 15-16 by Ipsos and Reuters found the race tied at 44%, while a July 1-2 poll showed Trump with a narrow one-point advantage. The impact of these earlier polls, taken before Harris was the likely nominee, remains uncertain.

Both CNN/SSRS and Morning Consult polls suggest Harris performs better against Trump compared to Biden. Before Biden’s exit, Morning Consult surveys showed him trailing Trump by six points, a trend mirrored by CNN/SSRS polls from April and June. In contrast, 56% of voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll view Harris as “mentally sharp and able to handle challenges,” compared to 49% for Trump and only 22% for Biden. NPR/PBS/Marist also found that 87% of respondents believe Biden’s decision to withdraw was correct, with 41% of voters, including 65% of Democrats, feeling it enhances the party’s chances in November.

Most pre-withdrawal polls showed similar performance levels for Biden and Harris against Trump. A Yahoo/YouGov poll from July 19-22 found Trump and Harris tied head-to-head, with Harris trailing by two points in a six-way race with third-party candidates. A CBS News/YouGov poll from the previous week showed Trump leading Harris by three points and Biden by five. An Economist/YouGov poll from July 13-16 suggested Biden would lose to Trump 41% to 43%, while Harris would fare slightly worse, losing 39% to 44%.

Trump’s lead over Harris in the RealClearPolitics polling average is 1.9 points, based on the Morning Consult poll and nine others conducted before Biden’s exit. This average excludes the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. As of Sunday, when Biden withdrew, Trump led Biden by 3.1 points—a 1.6-point increase from June 27. Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio expects a temporary boost for Harris, which he describes as a “Harris Honeymoon,” as her entry into the race is likely to re-energize the Democratic base.

Biden’s exit came after mounting pressure from within the Democratic Party, intensified by a poor debate performance on June 27. Prior to his departure, Biden trailed Trump by 3.1 points in the RealClearPolitics average, a slight rise since the debate. Following his exit, Biden endorsed Harris, who announced her candidacy. The Democratic Party has quickly rallied behind her, with endorsements from all Democratic governors and a majority of Congress members. Harris has effectively secured the Democratic nomination, with over half of all delegates committed to her, and the formal nomination is expected in the first week of August.