Poll: Harris Leads Trump by 1 Point in Swing States

Former President Donald Trump has seen a decline in his lead across key swing states since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential race, according to a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. The survey indicates that Trump is currently leading in only two of the seven crucial battleground states expected to be decisive in the upcoming election.

In Michigan, Harris has taken a commanding lead. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, conducted from July 24 to July 28, shows Harris ahead by 11 points, with 53% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 42%. However, other polls present a mixed picture. A Fox News poll conducted between July 22 and July 24 reveals the race is tied at 49% each. Meanwhile, an Emerson College survey from July 22 to July 23 shows Trump with a slight edge, leading Harris 46% to 45%, with 9% of voters remaining undecided.

In Pennsylvania, Trump maintains a narrow lead. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Trump ahead by four points, with 50% of the vote compared to Harris’s 46%. Conversely, the Fox News poll indicates a tie, with both candidates at 49%. The Emerson College survey places Trump slightly ahead by two points, 48% to 46%.

The situation is similarly close in Wisconsin. According to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Harris would win by two points, 49% to 47%. The Fox News poll shows Trump ahead by a single point, while the Emerson College poll results are even, with both candidates at 47% and 5% of voters undecided.

Georgia presents a mixed scenario. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows a tie at 47% for both Trump and Harris. However, the Emerson College poll gives Trump a slight advantage, leading Harris by two points, 48% to 46%, with 7% of voters undecided.

In Arizona, Harris leads by two points according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, 49% to 47%. However, the Emerson College poll reflects a different trend, with Trump ahead by five points, 49% to 44%, and 7% of voters undecided.

North Carolina shows a shift from Trump’s earlier strong position. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll indicates Trump would win by two points, 48% to 46%. This is a decrease from his 5.7-point lead over Biden as tracked by Real Clear Politics.

Nevada is another state where Harris holds a slight advantage. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading Trump by two points, 47% to 45%. This contrasts with Trump’s previous 5.6-point lead over Biden, as noted by Real Clear Politics.

Overall, the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll reveals that Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a slim margin of one point across the seven battleground states, with the survey indicating a 48% to 47% advantage for Harris. This marks a significant shift from the earlier polls conducted between July 1 and July 5, which showed Biden trailing Trump by two points in these states before Biden’s withdrawal from the race.

Since Biden’s exit on July 21, there has been a noticeable shift in the national polls, with Harris making inroads into Trump’s previous lead. Despite these changes, Trump still maintains a slight edge over Biden nationally, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.

As Harris continues her campaign, potential vice presidential picks could play a crucial role in solidifying her support in these swing states. The Emerson poll suggests that Democratic voters have preferences for certain candidates who currently hold office. In Arizona, 42% of Democratic voters favor Senator Mark Kelly, while 57% in Pennsylvania prefer Governor Josh Shapiro. In Michigan, 36% of Democrats support Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has stated she is not interested in the vice presidency. Other potential candidates, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Senator Bernie Sanders, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, and California Governor Gavin Newsom, have not garnered significant support in Wisconsin and Georgia.

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21, amid an internal party dispute following a lackluster debate performance on June 27, led to his immediate endorsement of Kamala Harris. The shift has substantially impacted the dynamics of the Democratic primary. Most of Biden’s delegates are expected to support Harris, likely ensuring her nomination when the delegates vote in early August. Before Biden’s exit, polls consistently indicated Trump’s advantage in most battleground states, despite Biden’s wins in six of the seven key states in the 2020 election.