Storm Debby May Become Hurricane Before Hitting Florida

Tropical Storm Debby is approaching Florida and is expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane before making landfall on Monday. The storm is likely to prompt a state of emergency across much of Florida, marking the fourth named storm of the current hurricane season. Officials are preparing for Debby’s arrival, with significant concerns about potential flooding and storm surge.

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), Debby is projected to make landfall as a hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region, which includes cities at the end of the panhandle such as Tallahassee, St. Marks, and Apalachicola. The storm is moving northward off Florida’s Gulf Coast. The NWS provided an update on Sunday at 11 a.m. EDT, detailing the latest information on Debby’s trajectory and anticipated impacts.

The NWS has issued warnings of heavy rainfall, forecasting between six to twelve inches in Florida’s Big Bend area and ten to twenty inches in southeast Georgia and South Carolina. These conditions could lead to “catastrophic flooding” through Friday. Additionally, the Gulf Coast of Florida is facing the threat of a “life-threatening storm surge,” with inundation levels expected to range from six to ten feet on Monday.

While hurricane conditions are not expected until Monday, tropical storm conditions, including winds ranging from 39 to 73 miles per hour, are anticipated to begin on Sunday evening and continue through Monday across Florida. These conditions could cause significant damage and disruption.

As of Sunday at 11 a.m., the National Weather Service reported that Tropical Storm Debby had a maximum sustained wind speed of 65 mph. In preparation for the storm, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for much of the state on Thursday. By Friday, the declaration was expanded to include 61 of Florida’s 67 counties. This measure is intended to facilitate a coordinated response to the storm’s impact.

On Saturday, President Joe Biden approved Florida’s emergency declaration and authorized federal assistance to support state, tribal, and local response efforts. This federal aid aims to bolster the state’s capacity to manage the storm’s effects and provide necessary resources for recovery.

The storm’s path remains uncertain, with the National Weather Service highlighting “significant uncertainty” regarding Debby’s trajectory over the next 2-5 days. Current forecasts suggest that the storm’s center may linger over the southeastern U.S., including Georgia and South Carolina, for several days, complicating response planning and preparation.

Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted this year to be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record for the Atlantic region. This forecast is influenced by near-record warm sea surface temperatures—often linked to climate change—and the return of La Niña, which reduces wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean and creates conditions favorable for hurricanes. Although the official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November, hurricanes can occur outside this timeframe.

NOAA’s forecast for this year includes between 17 and 25 named storms, significantly exceeding the average of 14 named storms observed annually over the past three decades. This prediction underscores the heightened level of activity expected during the current hurricane season and emphasizes the importance of vigilance and preparedness.