COVID Surge in 25 States as New Vaccines Await Approval

A summer surge of COVID-19 has likely resulted in an increase in infections across half of the U.S. states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This rise in cases comes as pharmaceutical companies await approval for new vaccines designed to target the latest variant of the coronavirus. Despite the uptick in cases, hospitalizations remain relatively low.

CDC data from Tuesday, the most recent available, indicates that COVID-19 infections are on the rise in 14 states, with another 11 states likely experiencing growth in cases. Meanwhile, only five states are expected to be seeing a decline in cases, and the situation in the other 20 states is either stable or unclear.

The presence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in wastewater has reached “very high” levels in 33 states, including Texas, Florida, and California—an increase of six states from the previous week. Additionally, the virus levels are “high” in 11 other states, according to CDC data released Thursday. Monitoring wastewater is a common early indicator of rising coronavirus infections.

COVID-19 cases have consistently surged during the summer months in recent years. Factors contributing to these increases include the emergence of more transmissible variants, people gathering indoors to escape the summer heat, and a rise in travel, as noted by Johns Hopkins University.

This year’s summer surge could potentially be the largest seen since the virus began circulating in 2020, according to public health expert Ashish Jha, who spoke to NBC News. However, the rates of hospitalization and death remain relatively low compared to previous summers. It’s important to note that as of May, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-related data to the CDC, making it more challenging to track these metrics.

The current surge in cases has been partially attributed to three new variants of the virus that have evolved significantly from their parent strain, JN.1. These variants have mutated enough that immunity from previous infections is less effective. This comes at a time when millions of American children are returning to school, which could further exacerbate the spread of the virus.

Despite the increase in cases, hospitalization rates remain low. As of the week ending August 10, the latest data available, 3.2 people per 100,000 were being hospitalized due to COVID-19. This figure is higher than the same week in 2023 when 2 people per 100,000 were hospitalized, but it is still lower than in the three preceding years. For comparison, during the same week in 2020, 6.3 people per 100,000 were hospitalized; in 2021, the rate was 5.8 per 100,000; and in 2022, it was 7.7 per 100,000. The current rate of 3.2 hospitalizations per 100,000 is also much lower than the peak of 7.8 hospitalizations per 100,000 in the late December 2023-2024 season.

“Our hospitalization rates are down, so even if we are testing and seeing more [COVID-19 cases], it seems to be having less of an impact on our susceptible populations,” said Michael Phillips, chief hospital epidemiologist for NYU Langone Health in New York City, in an interview with NBC News.

According to the CDC, COVID-19 infections are rising or likely rising in several states, including California, Washington, Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Vermont, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Conversely, cases are likely declining in Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, Florida, and New York. In other states, infection rates are either stable or not estimated by the CDC.

The situation could change soon as updated vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax, designed to protect against new variants, are expected to receive approval as early as next week, according to the Washington Post. These vaccines could be available to the public as soon as Labor Day. Historically, COVID-19 cases tend to spike during the fall and winter months, so the availability of updated vaccines will be crucial in controlling the spread of the virus.

The first COVID-19 vaccines were made available in December 2020 for adults, and booster shots or variant-specific vaccines have been released annually since then. This year’s vaccines will target the JN.1 variant and the KP.2 strain, the most dominant variant circulating in the U.S. in May, June, and most of July. The CDC recommends that everyone over six months receive an updated COVID-19 vaccine, regardless of their previous vaccination status. Moderna and Pfizer’s vaccines will be available for individuals as young as six months old, while Novavax’s shot will be available for those 12 years and older.

In addition to these new vaccines, drug manufacturers are also working on a combined vaccine that would protect against both COVID-19 and influenza simultaneously. The combined shot from Moderna has shown promising results in clinical trials, according to the Washington Post, and could be available as soon as next year.

COVID-19 first became widespread in the United States in the spring of 2020, and by March of that year, it had been declared a national emergency by the Trump administration. By early April 2020, more than one million cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed worldwide, with over 500,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. and nearly 20,000 confirmed deaths. COVID-19 became the third leading cause of death in the U.S. by August 2020. Since then, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths has fluctuated, with a significant decline in deaths occurring in the spring of 2022. As of June 2022, more than 84 million COVID-19 cases had been confirmed in the U.S., and the number of deaths has remained relatively low, reaching a five-year low in the week of June 8, 2023, when 302 people died, according to the CDC.