Harris Leads Trump in Latest Polls Ahead of 2024 Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris has consistently led former President Donald Trump in multiple polls since securing the Democratic presidential nomination, with recent surveys highlighting her growing advantage. Two notable polls released this week show Harris ahead by six and three percentage points, respectively, underscoring her strong position as the 2024 race heats up.

According to a poll by Ipsos, ABC News, and The Washington Post, Harris is leading Trump 49% to 45% among registered voters and 51% to 45% among likely voters. These figures, released on Sunday, signal a robust lead for Harris as she prepares for the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

Another survey by CBS and YouGov, released on Sunday, reveals Harris with a three-point lead over Trump among likely voters (51% to 48%). Although the two candidates are tied at 50% in key battleground states, Harris’ overall lead heading into the convention week is a significant indicator of her growing momentum.

An Emerson College poll, conducted with 1,000 likely voters and released last Thursday, shows Harris leading Trump 50% to 46%, with 5% of voters still undecided. This poll further cements Harris’ advantage in the 2024 race, demonstrating her appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.

Despite Harris’ consistent leads, one poll conducted by Fox News and released last Thursday found Trump ahead by a narrow margin, 50% to 49% among registered voters. This exception, however, does not diminish Harris’ overall strong showing in the majority of recent surveys.

Monmouth University’s poll, released last Wednesday, found that 48% of registered voters are either definitely or probably planning to vote for Harris in November, compared to 43% who expressed the same intention for Trump. This data further highlights the vice president’s growing support as the election approaches.

The Economist/YouGov poll, conducted between August 11-13, also reflects Harris’ advantage, with 46% of registered voters indicating they would vote for her, while 44% would choose Trump in a five-way race that includes third-party candidates.

Morning Consult’s latest poll, released on Monday, shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, with 4% of registered voters opting for “someone else” and another 4% undecided. This marks the fourth consecutive week Consult’s weekly poll has shown Harris maintaining a lead over Trump.

Harris has also shown strength in several other polls conducted this month. A Reuters/Ipsos poll, released on August 8, found Harris leading Trump 42% to 37%. Similarly, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, released on August 6, shows Harris ahead of Trump by 48% to 45%.

While Harris has been leading in numerous polls, Trump has maintained an advantage in at least eight others since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. However, these polls also indicate that Harris has managed to narrow the gap, and her approval rating has increased since she declared her candidacy.

In a New York Times/Siena poll conducted between July 22-24, Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%). Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll conducted between July 23-25 found Trump leading by two points (49% to 47%).

One of the key indicators of Harris’ potential success lies in her performance in swing states. A Cook Political Report survey released last Wednesday found Harris leading Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states most likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Harris leads in five of these seven states, is tied with Trump in Georgia, and trails by three points in Nevada.

Despite these promising numbers for Harris, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio has predicted a “short-term” bump in the polls for Harris as her entry into the race reenergizes Democrats. Fabrizio referred to this anticipated surge as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was published.

The broader context of the race took a dramatic turn when President Joe Biden dropped out on July 21. Biden’s withdrawal followed weeks of pressure from his party after a poor performance in the June 27 debate. Biden quickly endorsed Harris, who then announced her intention to seek the Democratic nomination. The party rapidly united behind her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call that concluded last week.

The following day, Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, further solidifying her campaign. This announcement came weeks after Trump named Ohio Senator JD Vance his vice-presidential pick at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. The Democrats are set to hold their convention next week, from August 19-22, in Chicago.

As the race progresses, Harris’ consistent polling lead over Trump, particularly in key battleground states, positions her as a formidable contender in the 2024 presidential election. With the Democratic National Convention just around the corner, all eyes will be on Harris as she continues to solidify her candidacy and build momentum heading into the final stretch of the campaign.