Kamala Harris Maintains Lead Over Trump in Post-DNC Polls

Recent polls taken after the Democratic National Convention show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. Harris’s lead persists across several surveys, demonstrating a consistent edge over Trump, though the size of her advantage remains relatively stable compared to pre-convention figures.

In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted from Sunday through Tuesday, Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump, with 47% to Trump’s 45%. This is slightly ahead of her three-point advantage from a week earlier and a two-point lead from two weeks ago. The survey included 1,367 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.2%.

Another survey, conducted by Yahoo News/YouGov from August 22 to 26, shows Harris up by one point, with 47% to Trump’s 46%. In this poll, 4% of respondents were undecided, and 2% indicated they wouldn’t vote. This result is nearly identical to the 46%-46% tie observed in a previous survey by the same pollsters conducted after the Republican National Convention but before President Joe Biden exited the race.

An Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey reveals a larger margin for Harris, who leads Trump 48% to 44%. This finding aligns with Morning Consult’s earlier survey taken from August 16 to 18, before the Democratic National Convention concluded.

Overall, these surveys reflect a favorable trend for Harris since her entrance into the race last month. An Ipsos, ABC News, and The Washington Post poll released on August 18 shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 45% among registered voters and 51% to 45% among likely voters. Similarly, a CBS and YouGov poll, also released on August 18, indicates Harris has a three-point lead over Trump among likely voters (51% to 48%), although the candidates are tied at 50% in battleground states.

Harris also holds a 50% to 46% advantage over Trump in an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters released on August 15. However, a Fox News poll from August 15 is the only major recent poll showing Trump leading, with a slight edge of 50% to 49% among registered voters.

The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows Harris leading Trump by 1.7 points, while FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average gives Harris a 3.4-point lead.

Despite these favorable numbers for Harris, Trump has led in at least eight other polls conducted after Biden’s exit from the race. For instance, a New York Times/Siena poll from July 22-24 showed Trump leading Harris by one point (48% to 47%), and a Wall Street Journal poll from July 23-25 gave Trump a two-point lead (49% to 47%).

One notable development is a Monmouth University poll released on August 14, which found that Democratic enthusiasm has surged significantly since Harris entered the race. Enthusiasm among Democrats has nearly doubled from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained steady at 71%.

Regarding swing states crucial to the election outcome, a Cook Political Report survey shows Harris leading Trump by one point across seven battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Harris is ahead in five of these states, tied with Trump in Georgia, and trailing by three points in Nevada.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio anticipates a short-term bump in Harris’s poll numbers due to the excitement generated by her candidacy. Fabrizio described this expected boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The backdrop to these polling dynamics includes Joe Biden’s exit from the race on July 21, following calls from within his party to step down after a poor performance in the June 27 debate. Biden’s immediate endorsement of Harris paved the way for her to announce her candidacy. The Democratic Party has quickly unified around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to nominate her during a virtual roll call before the convention. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, following Trump’s announcement of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential pick at the Republican National Convention on July 18. The Democrats held their convention from July 19-22 in Chicago, cementing Harris’s position as the party’s nominee.