Harris Surges Past Trump with Record Voter Excitement

As Vice President Kamala Harris nears the final phase of the 2024 presidential campaign, a notable surge in enthusiasm among her supporters has emerged, positioning her to challenge former President Donald Trump’s previously established advantage. Recent polling data reflects a dramatic turnaround in voter sentiment that could influence undecided voters and those who were initially reluctant to participate in the upcoming election.

According to a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted from August 25 to August 28, Harris is experiencing a significant boost in voter excitement. The poll reveals that 68% of Harris supporters are now “very excited” to cast their ballots for her. This enthusiasm surpasses the 60% of Trump supporters who express similar fervor for the former president. This shift is particularly striking considering the enthusiasm gap that existed just a few months ago.

In June, prior to Harris officially launching her campaign, President Joe Biden’s supporters were considerably less enthusiastic. Only 30% of Biden’s backers were described as “very excited” about voting for him, in stark contrast to 59% of Trump supporters who were similarly enthusiastic about the former president. This disparity highlighted a significant enthusiasm gap that has now largely closed, signaling a potential turning point in the campaign.

The enthusiasm among Harris’ base is corroborated by another recent survey conducted by Gallup from August 1 to August 20. This survey found that 78% of Democratic voters, including those who lean Democratic, reported being “more enthusiastic than usual” about the election. This level of enthusiasm exceeds that of Republican voters and those leaning Republican, who expressed a 64% rate of increased enthusiasm. This marks a notable reversal from March, when 55% of Democrats felt more enthusiastic, compared to 59% of Republicans.

The surge in enthusiasm is contributing to an unprecedented high in overall voter enthusiasm, with Gallup reporting a 69% excitement level among all voters—a record since Gallup began tracking this metric in 2000. Within this context, Democratic enthusiasm is approaching its peak, nearly matching the 2008 primary excitement levels seen during the contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Republican enthusiasm is also high, nearing the 70% peak recorded in August 2020 during Trump’s re-election campaign.

The upcoming debate between Harris and Trump, scheduled for Tuesday, September 10, at 9 p.m. EDT on ABC News, is anticipated to further impact voter sentiments. The debate represents the first direct confrontation between the two candidates and is expected to be a critical moment in the campaign.

Gallup’s analysis highlights that the party with higher net-enthusiasm typically fares better in presidential elections. This observation is linked to the strong correlation between partisan enthusiasm and the candidate’s position in pre-election polls. As Gallup noted in April, increased enthusiasm often reflects positively in the candidate’s polling numbers, suggesting that the current enthusiasm shift could benefit Harris as the election approaches.

Despite Harris’ impressive surge in enthusiasm and her narrow lead in national polls, Trump continues to show strength in several swing states. Since her campaign launch, Harris has managed to erase Trump’s previous national polling lead, although by a slim margin. Current averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show Harris leading Trump by 3.2 points and 1.8 points, respectively. Harris has also made notable gains among demographic groups that had been less supportive of Biden in 2020, including younger voters and minority communities.

Trump’s lead in national polls before Biden’s exit was primarily characterized by voter apathy and dissatisfaction with both major candidates. This sentiment led some analysts to speculate that the election might hinge on voters who were disillusioned with both Trump and Biden and could be swayed by either candidate.

In terms of specific issues, Trump continues to hold advantages over Harris. According to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, Trump has a six-point lead over Harris on economic issues, compared to a 14-point advantage he held over Biden in June. On immigration, Trump leads Harris by three points, a decrease from his 13-point lead over Biden. Trump also leads by four points on national security and U.S.-China relations, though this is a reduction from his ten-point lead over Biden in June.

As the campaign intensifies, the shift in voter enthusiasm could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. With Harris gaining momentum and Trump’s lead in various key issues narrowing, the upcoming weeks will be crucial in shaping the final outcome of the race.