North Carolina Court Delays Ballots—Trump May Benefit

On Friday, a North Carolina appeals court issued a ruling that could have significant implications for the 2024 presidential election. The court ordered state election officials to remove Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name from mail-in ballots, effectively delaying their distribution by several hours, just as the deadline approached. This decision could potentially benefit former President Donald Trump by impacting the outcome in North Carolina, a key swing state in the upcoming election.

The court’s ruling came in response to Kennedy’s request to withdraw his name from the ballots after he exited the presidential race last month and endorsed Trump. Kennedy’s withdrawal was aimed at consolidating support for Trump and avoiding any unintended advantage for his rivals. The appeals court’s decision overturned an earlier ruling from a lower court, which had supported the North Carolina State Board of Elections’ decision to keep Kennedy’s name on the ballots despite his withdrawal.

The State Board of Elections had previously voted along party lines to retain Kennedy’s name on the ballots, citing the logistical challenge posed by the fact that many counties had already begun printing ballots with Kennedy’s name. This decision was made in the face of Kennedy’s request and the forthcoming deadline for mailing out the ballots. The appeals court’s order to remove Kennedy’s name now requires election officials to revise and reprint the ballots, a process that could potentially delay the mailing of ballots to voters.

Kennedy’s strategy to withdraw his name from the ballots in battleground states while keeping it on those in solidly Democratic or Republican areas reflects a calculated approach to minimize any negative impact on Trump’s campaign. By focusing on battleground states where the margins between candidates are narrow, Kennedy aims to avoid inadvertently aiding Trump’s opponents. In contrast, retaining his name on ballots in states with a strong partisan alignment could allow Kennedy to maintain a symbolic presence and influence without directly affecting the election dynamics in pivotal states.

The timing of the court’s ruling is particularly critical as it coincides with the deadline for sending out mail-in ballots in North Carolina. This delay could affect the election process, potentially leading to confusion among voters and administrative challenges for election officials. The State Board of Elections has hinted at the possibility of appealing the ruling, although it remains uncertain whether such an appeal would succeed or how it might impact the overall timeline for ballot distribution.

In a related development, a Michigan appeals court also ruled on Friday that Kennedy’s name should not appear on ballots in that state. This decision, coming amidst reports that Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson plans to appeal, adds another layer of complexity to the legal and electoral landscape. If the Michigan ruling stands, Kennedy will have successfully removed his name from ballots in six of the seven major battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. He is currently pursuing legal action to have his name removed from the ballot in Wisconsin, the only remaining battleground state where his candidacy could still appear.

Kennedy’s decision to withdraw from the race and endorse Trump has not significantly altered the national popular vote, as he was polling at less than 5% when he exited. However, his presence or absence on the ballot in key swing states could influence the election outcome in these critical areas. The impact of Kennedy’s ballot access decisions highlights the strategic maneuvering that characterizes modern political campaigns, particularly in states where the margins between candidates are razor-thin.

North Carolina, a state that has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1980 (Obama in 2008), is a focal point in this election cycle due to its shifting demographics and growing political competitiveness. The state’s changing political landscape, coupled with the current polling data showing Trump’s narrow lead over Kamala Harris by just 0.7 points according to RealClearPolitics, underscores the importance of North Carolina as a battleground. The legal battles over Kennedy’s ballot access in North Carolina and Michigan could have broader implications for the election, potentially influencing voter perceptions and campaign strategies as both parties seek to secure crucial victories in these contested regions.

Overall, the unfolding legal challenges related to Kennedy’s candidacy, along with the strategic decisions made by his campaign, illustrate the high stakes and complex dynamics of the 2024 presidential race. The outcomes of these legal disputes will not only affect the immediate electoral process but also shape the broader narrative of the campaign as it progresses toward Election Day.