Hurricane Warning: Francine to Hit Louisiana as Category 2

Tropical Storm Francine underwent significant intensification in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday afternoon, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue a hurricane warning for a substantial portion of Louisiana’s coastline. The storm, which has been steadily strengthening, is expected to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane later this week, bringing potentially severe weather conditions to the region.

As of the latest update from the NHC at 4 p.m. CDT on Monday, Tropical Storm Francine was situated approximately 150 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande. The storm’s maximum sustained winds had increased to about 65 mph, up from 50 mph earlier in the day. This strengthening reflects the storm’s continued development as it moves through the Gulf. Forecasters predict that Francine will initially travel north-northwest before making a turn to the northeast and accelerating on Tuesday. This shift is expected to lead to “more significant intensification,” with the storm likely to reach Category 2 hurricane status by late Wednesday when it is projected to make landfall in Louisiana.

The NHC has warned that Francine could achieve hurricane strength as early as Monday night or Tuesday morning. While not explicitly forecasted, there is concern over the potential for rapid intensification. Computer models suggest a heightened likelihood of this occurring, starting Tuesday and possibly continuing for up to 24 hours before the storm encounters increased wind shear as it approaches the coast. This shear could influence the storm’s development trajectory, potentially affecting its final intensity upon landfall.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the area stretching from Sabine Pass, Louisiana, to Morgan City, Louisiana. Additionally, a hurricane watch extends eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana, indicating that hurricane conditions are possible in this area. The NHC has also issued a storm surge warning from High Island, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, which includes Vermilion Bay. Storm surge watches are in effect east of the Mississippi River, covering the Mississippi-Alabama border and including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The storm surge warning area is at risk of experiencing “life-threatening inundation,” with anticipated tidal surges reaching up to 10 feet above normal levels from Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay. The National Weather Service has cautioned that hurricane conditions could begin to affect the region by Wednesday afternoon. In addition to storm surge, Francine is expected to bring significant rainfall, with forecasts predicting four to eight inches of precipitation across the coastal areas of northeast Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi through Thursday.

The NHC will provide its next intermediate advisory, including updated wind speed information, at 7 p.m. CDT. A comprehensive advisory with an updated forecast track will be issued at 10 p.m. CDT.

In response to Francine’s anticipated impact, several evacuation notices have been issued. The Cameron Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness has mandated an evacuation for the southern part of the parish as of 2 p.m. local time on Monday. The Mayor of Grand Isle has also issued a voluntary evacuation order and canceled school for Tuesday. Exxon Mobil has evacuated its personnel from its Hoover offshore production site, located over 100 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas, while Shell and Chevron have similarly evacuated non-essential staff from their facilities.

Although New Orleans is not directly in the path of the storm, the city is under a tropical storm watch. The metro area is expected to experience 2-4 feet of storm surge in Lake Pontchartrain. Heavy rainfall is anticipated on Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions potentially affecting the city on Wednesday and Wednesday night, according to the National Weather Service.

For a tropical storm to be upgraded to a hurricane, its maximum sustained surface winds must reach 74 mph. Tropical Storm Francine, currently with winds ranging between 39 and 73 mph, is on the verge of this transition.

This hurricane season has already seen six named storms, including Francine. The other named storms this season are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and Ernesto. Tuesday marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. This peak usually occurs around September 10, with a secondary peak around mid-October affecting the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. After this period, the hurricane season generally winds down relatively quickly.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had forecasted one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record, with predictions of 17 to 25 named storms and eight to 13 hurricanes. Despite this, the season has been notably quiet in recent weeks. Francine’s formation on Monday marked the first named storm since Ernesto on August 12. According to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State, this season is unique as the first since 1968 with no named storms forming between August 13 and September 8. The average prediction over the last three decades has been 14 named storms. The busy forecast was attributed to “abundant oceanic heat content” in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, which NOAA noted provides additional energy for storm development.

As Tropical Storm Francine progresses, residents and officials in the affected regions are advised to stay alert and prepare for the storm’s potential impacts.