Harris Leads Trump in Tight 2024 Polls, Swing States Close

In the upcoming 2024 election, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is tightening as new polls reveal a near dead heat just six weeks before voters head to the polls. While Harris maintains a slight lead nationally, her advantage in crucial swing states has narrowed, suggesting a highly competitive race in the final stretch.

According to a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from September 18-20, Harris holds a four-point lead over Trump among likely voters nationwide, with a 52% to 48% margin. However, in the seven key swing states that will likely determine the election’s outcome—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—her lead shrinks to a razor-thin 51% to 49%. This represents a marginal shift from a month earlier when Harris led Trump by three points nationally and was tied with him in the swing states.

Other polls echo the close nature of the race. An NBC survey from September 13-17 showed Harris ahead by five points, 49% to 44%, among registered voters. This marks a significant improvement for Democrats, as Trump previously led President Joe Biden by two points, 45% to 43%, in July. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena poll released on September 19 indicated a tie between Harris and Trump at 47% among likely voters. Interestingly, 67% of respondents in the Siena poll felt Harris performed well in the first debate, while only 40% said the same about Trump. This marks a shift from earlier surveys by the Times/Siena, where Trump held a slim one-point lead over Harris in both September and July.

Additional polling reinforces the competitive nature of the race. A YouGov/Economist survey of registered voters conducted on September 19 has Harris leading Trump by four points, 49% to 45%, while a Fox News poll of likely voters from the same date gives Harris a two-point edge, 50% to 48%. These numbers represent small shifts in Harris’ favor, as she trailed Trump by one point in an August Fox News poll and led by just two points in a September YouGov poll.

Harris also saw an improvement in the HarrisX poll, which surveyed 3,018 registered voters between September 11-13. In that poll, Harris led Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, with 8% of voters undecided. This was a slight increase from the pre-debate HarrisX survey, which found the two candidates tied at 45%, with 10% of voters undecided.

The Monmouth University poll of 803 registered voters, taken from September 11-15, mirrored these findings, with Harris leading Trump 49% to 44%. This result was nearly identical to Monmouth’s August survey, which had Harris ahead 48% to 43%. Meanwhile, Morning Consult’s polling from September 13-15 showed Harris with her largest lead yet, 51% to 45%, among likely voters—a three-point improvement following the first debate. In a one-day Morning Consult survey conducted immediately after the debate on September 11, Harris led Trump by five points, 50% to 45%.

Several other post-debate polls showed similar results. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted from September 11-13 found Harris up by six points, 52% to 46%, among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters. These figures remain consistent with Harris’ six-point leads in earlier ABC/Ipsos polls conducted in August. Moreover, 63% of respondents in the ABC/Ipsos survey felt Harris won the debate, highlighting her strong performance.

Harris also held a five-point advantage in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from September 11-12, leading Trump 47% to 42%. This marks a slight increase from late August when the same poll had Harris ahead by four points, 45% to 41%. However, pre-debate surveys suggested that Harris’ surge in the polls may have plateaued. For instance, an NPR/PBS/Marist survey conducted from September 3-5 showed Harris with a narrow one-point lead, 49% to 48%, down from a three-point margin in August. However, Harris still led Trump by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who said they definitely planned to vote.

In other polling, a September 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters gave Harris a two-point lead, 47% to 45%, down slightly from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll. A Wall Street Journal poll released on August 29 showed Harris leading Trump 48% to 47%, a significant reversal from the previous month when Trump had a two-point edge. This marked the first time in over a year that Trump trailed in a Journal survey. Similarly, a Suffolk/USA Today poll from August 25-28 found Harris leading Trump by five points, 48% to 43%, among likely voters—a sharp contrast to Trump’s earlier lead over Biden in June, when Trump was ahead 41% to 38%.

As of the latest polling averages, Harris leads Trump by 1.9 points, according to RealClearPolitics, while FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average gives her a slightly larger lead of 2.7 points. Despite this national edge, the race remains incredibly close in swing states. According to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll taken from August 23-27, Harris leads Trump by just two points overall in the seven battleground states. She holds a lead in six of these states and is tied with Trump in Arizona.

One notable finding came from Iowa, where Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead significantly. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted from September 8-11 by renowned pollster Ann Selzer found Trump’s 18-point lead from June shrinking to just four points.

The 2024 election took a dramatic turn on July 21 when Biden dropped out of the race following a poor debate performance. He endorsed Harris, who quickly gained the party’s support, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in August. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Trump chose Ohio Senator JD Vance. The first debate between Harris and Trump, hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia on September 10, was widely viewed as a win for Harris, according to multiple pundits and polls.