Harris Leads Trump in Key States, Tied in Pennsylvania

As the 2024 presidential election draws near, recent polling data reveals a tightly contested race in several key battleground states. According to a CBS/YouGov poll, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but the two candidates are deadlocked in the critical state of Pennsylvania. This snapshot of the electoral landscape underscores the fierce competition shaping up just two months before the election.

In Pennsylvania, the CBS/YouGov poll shows Harris and Trump each commanding 50% of likely voters’ support. This is a significant shift from an earlier April CBS poll, which indicated Trump had a slight edge of 50% to 49% over President Joe Biden. The latest figures also reflect a reversal from July, when Trump led Harris by four points, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey. The margin of error for the current poll is 3.4 percentage points, highlighting the close nature of the race in this crucial swing state.

In Michigan, Harris is currently leading Trump by a slim margin of 50% to 49%, as reported by CBS and YouGov. This lead is within the 3.6-point margin of error, marking a reduction from Harris’ five-point advantage noted in a late August CNN/SSRS poll and her 11-point lead from the July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey. This narrowing gap suggests a competitive race in the Wolverine State, reflecting changing dynamics as Election Day approaches.

Wisconsin presents a similar scenario. Harris leads Trump by 51% to 49% according to the CBS/YouGov poll, with a 4-point margin of error. This is a slight increase from her previous 50%-44% lead reported by CNN/SSRS, and aligns with the two-point advantage she held in the July Bloomberg poll. The close margins in Wisconsin suggest that the state will be a battleground where every vote could make a difference.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, Trump currently holds a 49% to 44% lead over Harris, based on a CNN/SSRS survey conducted from August 23 to 29. Notably, 14% of Arizona voters remain undecided and could potentially sway the outcome before the November election. This represents a shift from a July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey, where Trump trailed Harris by two points. The changing numbers in Arizona highlight the fluid nature of voter sentiment in this state.

In Georgia, the race is also extremely tight. Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 48% to 47%, according to CNN/SSRS. This lead is within the 4.7-point margin of error, and reflects a shift from their tied status in the July Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, where both candidates had 47% support. With 11% of Georgia voters indicating potential indecision, the state remains a critical area to watch.

Similarly, in Nevada, Harris holds a slender lead of 48% to 47%, with 13% of respondents expressing uncertainty about their final choice. This represents a slight decrease from Harris’ two-point lead reported in the July survey. The tight margins in Nevada, coupled with significant undecided voters, underscore the state’s importance in the upcoming election.

One notable development is Harris’ improved standing in North Carolina, where she leads Trump by 49% to 47% among registered voters, according to a late August Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. This is a reversal from Trump’s 48% to 46% lead reported in July. North Carolina has become increasingly significant due to demographic shifts that have tilted the state more towards the left in recent years.

Harris’ growing support among younger, non-white, and female voters is also a critical factor. A recent New York Times survey highlights that Harris is receiving strong backing from 84% of Black voters, surpassing the level of support that Biden had before his withdrawal from the race in July. This demographic support could play a pivotal role in her campaign as she prepares for the final stretch leading up to the election.

In July, President Joe Biden exited the presidential race, despite initially asserting he would continue campaigning amid party dissent following his June 27 debate performance. Biden’s withdrawal led to his endorsement of Harris, who quickly announced her bid for the nomination. Harris officially became the nominee in early August, securing 99% of delegate votes in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden’s exit, polls consistently indicated that Trump would have had an edge over Biden in most battleground states, with Biden only managing to secure six out of seven states in the 2020 election, excluding North Carolina.

The current polling data paints a picture of a highly competitive race with no clear frontrunner in many of the pivotal states. As the campaign intensifies, the dynamics in these battleground states will be crucial in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.