Trump Gains Slim Lead Over Harris in Latest 2024 Poll

In a dramatic turn in the 2024 presidential race, former President Donald Trump has edged out Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow margin, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. Conducted from September 3 to September 6, the poll shows Trump with a slim lead of 48% to 47% over Harris, marking his first advantage in weeks. This shift comes after a period of dominance by Harris in several key surveys. The margin of error for this poll is 2.8 points, emphasizing the tight nature of the race as the election approaches.

Previously, Harris had been leading in several major polls. For instance, an Emerson College survey conducted from September 3 to September 4 indicated Harris had a two-point lead over Trump, with results showing 49% to 47%. This represents a slight decrease from her four-point advantage in Emerson’s August poll, suggesting a tightening of the race. Similarly, a September 1 to September 3 poll by Economist/YouGov found Harris leading Trump by two points, consistent with previous results from August. In these polls, Harris maintained a narrow but consistent edge over Trump, reflecting her strong performance in recent months.

Additionally, an Ipsos/ABC News poll conducted from August 23 to August 27 showed Harris with a 50%-46% lead among all registered voters, and a 52%-46% lead among likely voters. This result is comparable to her previous edge of four points among registered voters and five points among likely voters. This stability in Harris’s lead underscores her sustained popularity among voters, despite recent fluctuations in other polls. Outward Intelligence’s survey, taken from August 25 to August 29, further reinforced Harris’s position, showing her leading by more than five points in matchups that included third-party candidates.

The Wall Street Journal’s poll, released on August 29, revealed that Harris led Trump by 47%-45% when third-party candidates were considered and 48%-47% in a direct matchup. This finding marks a notable shift from earlier surveys where Trump had led. This result is particularly significant as it is the first time in over a year that Trump has trailed in a Wall Street Journal survey. The poll’s margin of error is 2.5 points, indicating that while Harris is currently ahead, the race remains extremely close.

In contrast, the Quinnipiac poll conducted from August 23 to August 27 showed Harris with a 49%-47% lead, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error. The results also indicated a tight contest among independents, who were split 45%-45% between Harris and Trump. In head-to-head matchups, Harris’s lead slightly diminishes to 49%-48%, suggesting a very competitive race where neither candidate has a clear advantage.

The Suffolk/USA Today poll, conducted from August 25 to August 28, gave Harris a more substantial lead of 48%-43% among likely voters. This represents a dramatic shift from Trump’s earlier lead over President Joe Biden. The Suffolk poll’s margin of error is 3.1 points, which highlights the variability in polling results. Harris’s substantial lead in this survey contrasts with her narrower margins in other polls, indicating fluctuations in voter sentiment.

Another August 29 poll by Ipsos/Reuters showed Harris leading by 45%-41% among registered voters, surpassing the poll’s 2-point margin of error. This reflects an increase from her previous one-point advantage in late July. This poll’s findings are consistent with other surveys that have shown Harris expanding her lead in recent weeks. Ipsos also conducted a separate poll without Reuters, which recorded a five-point lead for Harris earlier in August, further highlighting her improving position.

Overall, Harris’s performance in recent polls suggests a broadly stable advantage since the Democratic National Convention. She leads Trump by one point in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll and by 48%-44% in a Morning Consult survey of registered voters conducted from August 23 to August 25. These findings mirror earlier results, showing a persistent lead for Harris despite recent challenges.

RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average shows Harris with a 1.4-point lead over Trump, while FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average indicates a 3.1-point lead for Harris. Despite Trump’s earlier leads in various polls, recent data show Harris gaining ground and improving her approval ratings since her candidacy announcement.

A Monmouth University poll released on August 14 revealed a significant increase in Democratic enthusiasm, which nearly doubled from 46% in June to 85% in August. In contrast, Republican enthusiasm has remained steady at 71%. This surge in Democratic enthusiasm likely reflects the impact of Harris’s candidacy and her campaign’s efforts to energize voters.

In key swing states, Harris is leading Trump by two points overall, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey conducted from August 23 to August 27. This survey includes seven battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Harris is ahead in six of these states, with a tie in Arizona, underscoring her competitive edge in critical areas that will play a crucial role in the election outcome.

Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for the Trump campaign, has predicted a short-term boost for Harris as she gains traction in the polls. Fabrizio referred to this expected rise as a “Harris Honeymoon,” suggesting that her recent entry into the race could temporarily reenergize Democratic voters and influence subsequent polling results.

The backdrop to these shifting poll numbers includes Joe Biden’s exit from the race on July 21 following a poor debate performance. Biden’s endorsement of Harris led to her swift rise in the polls, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to nominate her at the convention. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Trump chose Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice-presidential pick. These developments have significantly influenced the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, setting the stage for a highly competitive election.