Harris Edges Trump in Tight Race, Swing States Tied

The 2024 U.S. presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is heating up, with new polls showing Harris leading Trump by narrow margins less than five weeks before the election. A series of national surveys conducted in late September and early October reveal a highly competitive race, with Harris holding slim advantages, though results from key battleground states indicate a virtual tie, setting the stage for a tight and contentious contest.

In one of the most recent polls, released by Emerson College on Thursday, Harris holds a narrow lead of 50% to 48% over Trump. This two-point margin is consistent with several other national polls, suggesting a razor-thin lead. Morning Consult’s weekly poll also shows Harris ahead, with a five-point advantage, polling at 51% to Trump’s 46%. Another survey conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research found Harris leading by five points, with 49% support compared to Trump’s 44%. Similarly, an Economist/YouGov poll released this past Wednesday showed Harris with a three-point lead, maintaining an edge of 50% to Trump’s 47%, a margin identical to previous results from the same polling organization.

Harris’s lead has fluctuated slightly in the polls, with some showing her maintaining a larger advantage than others. In Morning Consult’s poll from last week, she was ahead by five points—down from a six-point lead, her widest margin in their polling. Her favorability rating, however, has seen a significant boost, with 53% of likely voters viewing her positively, compared to 45% for Trump. This boost in favorability suggests growing support for Harris as Election Day approaches, though Trump’s base remains firmly behind him.

While these national polls suggest Harris has an edge, other surveys indicate a more competitive race, particularly in key swing states. A Quinnipiac poll released on September 24 showed the candidates tied, as did a New York Times/Siena College poll from earlier in the month, and a CNN/SSRS poll taken at the end of September. These ties highlight the unpredictable nature of the race, particularly in critical battleground states that could ultimately decide the election outcome.

Since Harris announced her candidacy on July 21, she has managed to erase the lead Trump held over President Joe Biden. However, her advantage has decreased slightly over the last two months. At its peak in late August, Harris led by 3.7 points according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, but that lead has since narrowed. As of the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points. FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average, which includes a broader range of polls, gives Harris a slightly larger 2.8-point lead.

One of the most critical aspects of the 2024 race is the situation in the swing states—areas that are often key to securing an Electoral College victory. Harris is leading Trump by just one point across seven crucial battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. According to a Cook Political Report survey released this week, Harris leads Trump in five of these states. Trump is ahead by two points in Georgia, while the candidates are tied in North Carolina, indicating just how close the race is in these pivotal regions.

A surprising trend has emerged regarding Latino voters, a demographic that has traditionally supported Democratic candidates. While Harris continues to lead Trump among Latino voters, her margin of support is shrinking. A recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted between September 16 and 23, found that 54% of Latino voters support Harris, compared to 40% who support Trump, with 6% undecided. This 14-point lead is significantly lower than the 36-point lead Joe Biden held over Trump in 2020, and the 50-point lead Hillary Clinton had in 2016. The shift suggests that Harris has struggled to maintain the level of Latino support that past Democratic candidates enjoyed, raising concerns for her campaign as she tries to solidify her base.

The first debate between Harris and Trump, held on September 10, was a highly anticipated event that many hoped would shift the dynamics of the race. Pre-debate polls showed Harris’s momentum slowing, with her lead plateauing. An NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken in early September showed Harris leading by just one point, 49% to Trump’s 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Similarly, an Emerson College poll found Harris leading by two points, 47% to 45%, a slight drop from her four-point lead in August. Post-debate surveys largely favored Harris, with most respondents saying she won the debate. However, the debate did not seem to have a significant impact on the overall horserace. A New York Times/Siena poll found that most voters across various demographic groups rated Harris’s performance positively, with 67% saying she performed well, compared to just 40% for Trump. Despite this, the poll showed the two candidates tied at 47%, underscoring how divided the electorate remains.

Further post-debate polls show similar results, with Harris holding a slight edge in some. A YouGov/Economist survey of registered voters showed her leading by four points, 49% to Trump’s 45%. A Fox News poll of likely voters gave Harris a two-point lead, 50% to 48%, reflecting a small shift from earlier polls that had the candidates neck and neck.

Harris has also managed to close the gap in Iowa, a state that Trump previously dominated in 2020. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted in mid-September found that Trump’s 18-point lead over Biden from earlier this year has dwindled to just four points against Harris, a significant shift in a state that has historically leaned Republican.

As Election Day draws near, Harris’s rise in the polls has coincided with a surge in enthusiasm among Democratic voters. A Monmouth University poll released in August found that enthusiasm among Democrats had nearly doubled since June, increasing from 46% to 85%. Meanwhile, Republican enthusiasm has remained steady at 71%. This surge in enthusiasm could prove crucial for Harris as she continues to campaign vigorously across the country.