Harris Leads Trump in Election Countdown

In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight edge over former President Donald Trump according to the latest national polls, though the race remains highly competitive. Just one week before Election Day, surveys indicate a virtual dead heat across key battleground states, creating an unpredictable electoral landscape.

The Cooperative Election Study, which surveyed around 50,000 likely voters from October 1 to 25, shows Harris leading Trump by a margin of 51% to 47%, with 3% of voters still undecided. This survey reflects a broader trend, as Harris consistently outpaces Trump in several recent polls. For instance, in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday, she led Trump 44% to 43%, marking a narrowing gap since the previous poll where she had a two-point advantage.

Another survey, conducted by Morning Consult and released on Tuesday, indicates that Harris is ahead of Trump by three points, 50% to 47%. This is a slight drop from her previous lead of four points in two prior surveys conducted by the same group. Similarly, an ABC/Ipsos poll released Sunday shows Harris leading Trump 51% to 47%, a modest increase from her earlier 50% to 48% advantage in early October. The CBS/YouGov poll released on the same day reported Harris up 50% to 49%, down from her earlier lead of 51% to 48%.

Contrarily, an Emerson College Polling survey conducted from October 23-24 found the candidates tied at 49%, a significant shift from the previous week when Harris had a narrow lead. Additionally, a New York Times/Siena poll revealed a deadlock at 48% among likely voters, indicating a decline in support for Harris compared to earlier polling where she was leading 49% to 46%. This situation has raised concerns within Democratic circles, as the Times noted that Democrats have historically won the popular vote even when losing the presidency.

The CNN/SSRS poll released Friday echoed similar findings, showing the candidates even at 47%. This result represents a downward trend for Harris, who had previously led Trump 48% to 47% in September. A CNBC poll released Thursday indicated Trump leading Harris 48% to 46%, while a Wall Street Journal poll from Wednesday showed a slightly larger margin in Trump’s favor, with him leading 47% to 45%. Notably, a HarrisX survey released Wednesday indicated Trump leading by two points nationally, at 51% to 49%, including those leaning toward one candidate. Without leaners, Trump holds a narrower lead of 49% to 48%.

Despite this mixed polling landscape, several surveys indicate Harris’s continued competitiveness. In a Monmouth University poll, she held a 47% to 44% advantage among registered voters who indicated they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for her or Trump, with a small percentage choosing “other” or declining to select a candidate. Harris also maintained a slight edge in an Economist/YouGov survey, leading Trump 49% to 46%, though this represents a one-point dip from previous polling.

Since announcing her candidacy on July 21, Harris has worked to regain the lead over Trump, particularly after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race following a lackluster performance in a June debate. Since then, she has tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Trump selected Ohio Senator JD Vance for his ticket.

As enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged—reportedly rising from 46% in June to 85% now—Republican enthusiasm has remained relatively stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll. This increased enthusiasm for Harris may be contributing to her slight leads in several polls, yet recent shifts indicate a tightening race as Election Day approaches.

Polls have historically proven to be unreliable predictors of electoral outcomes, raising questions about their accuracy this year. According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Trump is currently favored to win in 54 out of 100 scenarios, compared to 46 for Harris. In terms of polling averages, FiveThirtyEight shows Harris leading by a narrow margin of 1.5 points, while RealClearPolitics indicates Trump holds a slight advantage of 0.4 points.

Looking at swing states, the candidates’ fortunes vary: Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. The candidates are tied in Nevada, with most of these states showing margins of less than one percentage point.

As both candidates prepare for the final stretch of the campaign, they face the challenge of translating polling data into actual votes. While Harris currently leads in some key metrics, Trump’s ability to close the gap could prove crucial as Election Day draws nearer. As voters gear up to make their decisions, both parties are intensifying their efforts to sway undecided voters in this highly contested race.