Election Face-Off: Harris and Trump in Swing States

As Election Day approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a near tie across seven crucial swing states. Both candidates are focused on appealing to a diverse coalition of voters, each with distinct priorities and evolving political affiliations. A notable shift has occurred among Republican-leaning non-college-educated white voters, whose numbers have declined, while college-educated white voters, who increasingly align with the Democratic Party, could provide an advantage for Harris, particularly in the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

In North Carolina and Georgia, demographic changes, especially the rising diversity among suburban voters, could bolster Harris’s chances, although Republicans traditionally have an advantage in these states. The Sun Belt states, particularly Arizona and Nevada, present a different challenge for Harris. Here, the share of Latino voters, who have increasingly shifted toward Republican candidates, along with independents typically leaning Republican, could favor Trump. Current polling reflects a tight race in all seven states, with Trump showing slight leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Nevada appears to be a toss-up, as indicated by Nate Silver’s analysis.

In North Carolina, the demographic landscape is evolving, with a growing number of voters holding bachelor’s degrees—who generally support Democrats—and a leftward trend among suburban voters. This shift has transformed North Carolina into a competitive battleground after years of being a solidly Republican state. However, Harris is still struggling to meet the support levels Biden received from Black voters in 2020. Despite these challenges, her backing from suburban voters has risen significantly, with about 51% now supporting her, mirroring national averages. Conversely, the state’s rural areas remain predominantly Republican and have become increasingly loyal to the party since 2008.

In Pennsylvania, the changing demographics are pivotal, particularly in the suburban “collar counties” surrounding Philadelphia. Although the share of non-college-educated white voters, a critical demographic for Trump, has decreased since 2008, they still account for over half of the voting population in the “blue wall” states. A Brookings Institution analysis notes that college-educated white voters have become a larger portion of the electorate in Pennsylvania, increasing by eight percentage points since 2008. In 2020, Biden compensated for a decline in support in Philadelphia by securing more votes in these suburban areas than Hillary Clinton did, a trend that could significantly influence Harris’s success in the state.

Georgia presents another dynamic scenario, with the largest percentage of Black voters among the swing states. This demographic has increased from 29% in 2008 to 33% in 2024, yet Harris is polling eight points lower among Black voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, while Trump has gained ground among these voters. The demographic changes in the Atlanta metro area, which has become increasingly diverse, are credited with shifting Georgia from red to purple in recent elections. The college-educated voters in the suburbs played a vital role in Biden’s 2020 victory and will be crucial in determining the outcome this year.

Michigan’s election landscape is characterized by competition for union votes and the potential boycott from the Arab American population. As in other swing states, the number of college-educated voters in Michigan has increased, and approximately 21% of households include union members, a vital demographic for both candidates. Trump has attempted to attract union members by criticizing Biden’s electric vehicle policies, while Harris has gained significant support from the United Auto Workers union. Additionally, the Arab American community, which comprises about 4% of Michigan’s population, presents a unique challenge for Harris, especially in light of recent U.S. foreign policy issues.

Wisconsin, the least diverse of the swing states, has seen a notable shift among rural voters toward the Democratic Party, although they still predominantly favor Republicans. Urban areas have also moved right but continue to favor Democrats by substantial margins. Interestingly, suburban voters, who previously leaned toward Trump in 2020, now show preference for Harris, which could impact the overall outcome in the state.

In Nevada, the importance of independent and Latino voters cannot be overstated. The Latino population in Nevada has grown significantly in recent years, yet Harris’s lead among this group is the smallest seen by a Democrat in recent presidential elections. Independents now represent the largest voter bloc in Nevada, echoing a national trend. The Culinary Union, the state’s largest union, has endorsed Harris, which could sway additional votes her way, although both candidates have expressed support for tax policies affecting tips, a proposal that has gained traction in Nevada.

Arizona’s voter demographics have shifted dramatically, with the share of Latino eligible voters more than doubling since 2000, now representing 25% of the population. Trump has made gains among Latino voters in recent polling, which contrasts sharply with Biden’s performance in 2020. The number of independent voters in Arizona now surpasses Democrats, adding to the complexities of this competitive landscape.

Overall, the race hinges on key demographic shifts and voter priorities. Polling indicates a gender gap, with women consistently supporting Harris over Trump in all swing states. This margin could play a crucial role in determining the outcome, especially if turnout mirrors the levels seen in 2020, though Trump’s support among men remains strong in critical battlegrounds like Georgia and Arizona. As both candidates prepare for the final push, the stakes are high in these pivotal states that could ultimately decide the election.