Trump and Harris in Tight Race Across Swing States

The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be an intense contest across several swing states, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris running neck-and-neck in critical regions that may ultimately decide the election. Polls show that while Harris has a slight lead in northern states like Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump holds an advantage in parts of the Sun Belt, including Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Pennsylvania, a pivotal state with a history of razor-thin margins, currently stands as a virtual tie.

Both candidates are locked in a fierce battle for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, which could determine the winner. Recent polls underscore the closeness of the race: CNN/SSRS and Fox News polls show Trump and Harris tied at 48%, while CBS/YouGov reports a 49%-49% tie. However, the results vary slightly when third-party candidates are factored out. A Fox News poll gives Trump a narrow 50%-49% lead without third-party options, while a large Cooperative Election Study (CES) poll, which surveyed 3,685 respondents, places Harris at 49% to Trump’s 48%. Monmouth University polling also found Trump ahead by one point among all registered voters, but Harris has a 48%-47% advantage among likely voters. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average currently gives Trump a slim 0.4-point lead in Pennsylvania, but it’s far from a definitive margin.

In Michigan, the landscape has shifted significantly. Harris maintains a slim lead in several recent polls, with a Fox News poll showing her up 48%-46% and a CNN/SSRS poll reporting a 48%-43% advantage. Additionally, the CES poll, which had a sample size of 2,336 respondents, indicates Harris ahead with a 51%-46% margin. However, Trump has gained ground in the state, with a recent Washington Post poll showing him leading 47%-45%, marking a notable shift from earlier surveys. Emerson College also placed Trump ahead by one percentage point, and FiveThirtyEight’s polling average gives Harris only a slight edge of one point in Michigan.

North Carolina continues to lean in Trump’s favor, with multiple polls reflecting a modest but consistent lead. The CES, Marist, and Emerson College polls all put Trump ahead by margins ranging from one to two points, with Fox News reporting him up 49%-47%. Without third-party candidates in the mix, Trump’s lead extends to 50%-49%. FiveThirtyEight’s average indicates a 1.1-point advantage for Trump, solidifying North Carolina as a state where he has a clear, albeit narrow, edge.

Wisconsin has been a stronghold for Harris in recent polling, with surveys from CNN/SSRS and Marquette University showing her leading by up to five points. The CES poll, which included 1,542 respondents, also found Harris ahead, with a 50%-47% margin over Trump. However, an Emerson College poll gives Trump a slight advantage of 49%-48%, and a Quinnipiac poll has them tied at 48%. Overall, FiveThirtyEight’s average puts Harris up by 0.8 points in Wisconsin, suggesting a slight but potentially crucial lead.

In Nevada, polls suggest an exceedingly tight race, with Harris holding a small lead in some surveys. The CES poll of 933 respondents puts her ahead 51%-47%, while a recent Bloomberg poll showed her up by just 0.5 points at 48.8%-48.3%. Conversely, CNN/SSRS has Trump leading 48%-47%, a reflection of the state’s volatility. Given its significant Hispanic and suburban voter demographics, Nevada is likely to see vigorous campaign efforts from both sides. Currently, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average gives Harris a slight 0.1-point edge.

Arizona is leaning toward Trump, with several polls placing him in the lead. The CES survey of 2,066 respondents indicates Trump ahead by a 51%-47% margin, while a Marist poll from late October gives him a one-point lead at 50%-49%. A Washington Post-Schar School poll similarly reflects a Trump advantage, showing him up by three points, though a CNN/SSRS poll puts Harris slightly ahead at 48%-47%. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump leading by 2.2 points, suggesting he has a significant advantage in Arizona as the election approaches.

Georgia, which shifted Democratic in 2020, seems to be favoring Trump in the current election cycle. The CES survey of 2,663 respondents shows Trump with a 51%-46% lead, consistent with other recent polls. A Marist poll shows a tie at 49%, while a Bloomberg poll gives Trump a narrower 49.9%-48.4% edge. A Washington Post-Schar poll, however, has Harris ahead 51%-47%, indicating mixed sentiment among Georgian voters. Overall, FiveThirtyEight’s average places Trump up by 1.8 points, but the variability across polls underscores Georgia’s potential as a battleground.

On a national level, Harris holds a slight lead of 1.4 points according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Her path to victory appears to rely on securing the Midwest and keeping her narrow leads in states like Nevada and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump’s route hinges on maintaining his advantage in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, while trying to secure Pennsylvania or Michigan to solidify his position.

Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race in July. Biden’s decision came after a challenging primary debate, which sparked an intraparty division. Harris’ entry has reshaped the Democratic strategy, aiming to preserve the blue-collar and suburban support Biden captured in 2020. Previously, polls had consistently shown Trump with a favorable standing against Biden in many battleground states, a trend that Democrats hope Harris can reverse.

As the election nears, the focus on swing states intensifies, with Pennsylvania standing out as a pivotal battleground. The stakes in these regions are high, and even minor shifts in voter turnout could tip the scales. With both campaigns pushing hard in the final stretch, the 2024 presidential race remains too close to call, setting the stage for one of the most fiercely contested elections in recent history.