Trump Maintains Lead Over Harris in Arizona Polling

In a recent survey conducted by Cooperative Election Study, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by four points in Arizona, a crucial swing state for the upcoming 2024 election. The poll indicates that Trump is favored by 51% of likely voters compared to Harris’s 47%, underscoring a competitive political landscape where key issues such as immigration and abortion are poised to play significant roles.

The study, which gathered responses from 2,066 individuals, reflects a larger trend observed across several polls. For instance, a CNN/SSRS poll released on Tuesday shows Harris narrowly ahead, with a 48%-47% margin over Trump. Conversely, a Marist poll published on Thursday indicates that Trump is slightly leading with 50% to 49%, while a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released on Wednesday reports Harris with a slim edge of 49.1% to 48.8%. The differences in these polling results are minimal, especially when considering the margins of error: 4.4 points for CNN/SSRS, 3.7 points for Marist, and three points for Bloomberg.

In a broader analysis by FiveThirtyEight, Trump is leading Harris by an average of 2.1 points in their weighted polling average, which suggests a possible resurgence for Trump in Arizona after Biden’s narrow win in 2020. The Washington Post-Schar School poll from last week corroborates this trend, showing Trump ahead by three points at 49% to Harris’s 46%, with a margin of error of five points. Additionally, a CBS/YouGov survey found Trump maintaining a 51%-48% lead among likely voters.

Despite Trump’s advantage among voters who prioritize economic issues and border security, Harris is gaining traction with those who consider abortion rights and democratic values critical. In the CBS poll, for instance, Harris led Trump among likely Latino voters by a significant margin of 56% to 42%. This is noteworthy as more than 30% of Arizona’s population identifies as Hispanic or Latino, reflecting the potential impact of this demographic on the electoral outcome. However, this lead is somewhat smaller than the substantial advantage Biden held among Latino voters in 2020.

Adding to the electoral dynamics, the October 12 New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll echoed previous findings, showing Trump ahead of Harris by five points (51%-46%), consistent with the four-point lead he reported in September. Notably, the Times also highlighted Trump’s slight edge over Harris regarding perceptions of who would better assist the working class, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiments.

As both candidates gear up for the election, they will also be contending with pivotal ballot initiatives concerning immigration and abortion rights that could sway voter opinions. In Arizona, residents will have the opportunity to vote on the Right to Abortion Initiative, which aims to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. Simultaneously, an immigration enforcement measure will be on the ballot, proposing to criminalize unlawful border crossings from Mexico, granting state police the authority to arrest and detain migrants, and enabling state judges to initiate deportation processes.

The stakes are high for both parties, with Democrats pinning hopes on the abortion rights initiative, drawing from the success of similar measures in seven other states. Conversely, Trump and his supporters are backing the immigration enforcement proposal, resonating with voters concerned about rising illegal crossings and border security—a pressing issue in Arizona, as highlighted by recent reports from the Associated Press.

Historically, Trump has had a contentious relationship with Arizona’s electoral landscape. He won the state in the 2016 election but lost to Biden by a mere 10,457 votes in 2020. Following that defeat, Trump made unfounded claims about election fraud, alleging that Maricopa County’s voter database had been deleted. These assertions were vehemently denied by local election officials, with Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer characterizing Trump’s comments as “unhinged.” Moreover, Trump attempted to pressure former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey to overturn the election results, further illustrating the complex political climate in the state.

With the 2024 election on the horizon, the contest between Trump and Harris is heating up, not just in Arizona but across several other swing states. As both candidates navigate the contentious issues of immigration and abortion, their strategies will undoubtedly shape the electoral outcomes in a state that remains tightly contested. Each campaign will seek to mobilize voters by addressing their concerns while attempting to sway undecided individuals who hold the balance of power in this pivotal election. With polls indicating a fluctuating race, the coming months will be critical for both candidates as they strive to solidify their support among Arizona’s electorate.