Trump vs. Harris: Pennsylvania Polls Indicate a Virtual Stalemate

In a crucial update regarding the 2024 presidential race in Pennsylvania, new polling reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are virtually tied, with only a one-point difference in six recent surveys. This swing state is poised to play a significant role in determining the next president, given its historical tendency to choose the winner of the White House.

A Fox News poll, conducted among likely Pennsylvania voters, shows Trump slightly ahead at 50% to Harris’s 49%. This lead is well within the poll’s three-point margin of error. When considering third-party candidates, both candidates find themselves tied at 48%, with approximately 3% of voters opting for an alternative candidate. In contrast, a Quinnipiac poll shows Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 47% to 46%, also within the margin of error of 2.1 points. However, Harris claims a slight edge in a Cooperative Election Study poll, where she leads Trump 49% to 48%. This poll involved 3,685 respondents as part of a national study conducted by YouGov.

The competition remains tight across other polls as well. A CNN/SSRS poll finds both candidates locked in a 48% tie, with only 8% of respondents indicating they are undecided or open to changing their minds. Similarly, a CBS/YouGov poll shows an identical 49% to 49% split among likely voters.

Voter turnout could significantly influence the election outcome. In a Monmouth poll that surveyed all registered voters, Trump leads Harris 47% to 46%. However, the race is tied at 48% among those who are extremely motivated to vote, while Harris slightly leads 48% to 47% among individuals who have participated in most or all general elections since 2014, with a margin of error of 3.8 points.

Last week, polling suggested a different dynamic, with Harris leading Trump 50% to 48.2% among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey and holding a 49% to 47% advantage in a Washington Post/Schar School poll. Trump had an edge in an Emerson poll, leading Harris 49% to 48%.

In earlier polling, Harris had a stronger position, leading Trump by three points—50% to 47%—in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released on October 12. However, a Wall Street Journal poll conducted between September 28 and October 8 indicated Trump was leading by a narrow 47% to 46% among registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.

Currently, polling averages suggest a narrow edge for Trump, with a 0.4-point lead in Pennsylvania according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania holds more than any other battleground state and is a critical target for both parties. Historically, Pennsylvanians have voted for 10 of the last 12 White House winners, and the candidate who secures Pennsylvania often also wins Michigan and Wisconsin—states that collectively form the “blue wall” in presidential elections.

Statistician Nate Silver’s election forecasting model emphasizes Pennsylvania’s potential impact, suggesting that both candidates would have over an 85% chance of winning the presidency if they secure the state’s electoral votes. Trump notably became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania in decades during the 2016 election, but Joe Biden reversed that trend in 2020, securing the state and using its votes to surpass the 270 needed to win the Electoral College.

The stakes are personally significant for Trump, as he was shot during a rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 14. Pennsylvania’s demographic composition includes a substantial portion of white, working-class voters, who make up nearly 75% of the population and tend to support Trump. However, Harris has made strides with this demographic compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, trailing Trump by only three points nationally, as indicated by the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. In the 2020 election, Trump won this demographic by a significant margin of 12 points.

A surprising aspect of this election is that no Democrat has won the presidency without securing Pennsylvania since 1948. If Harris wins Pennsylvania and maintains the trend of winning in Wisconsin and Michigan, her path to the White House would be almost certain.

For Trump to succeed, he must not only maintain his leads in battleground states like Arizona and Georgia but also secure at least one of the “Blue Wall” states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

According to a CBS/YouGov survey, 82% of registered voters in Pennsylvania consider the economy a significant factor in their voting decision for 2024, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%. These priorities align closely with national trends identified in a recent Pew Research survey, indicating that 81% of registered voters view the economy as “very important” in the upcoming election.

Trump and his supporters have persistently criticized Harris for her past endorsement of a fracking ban, which could impact her appeal in Pennsylvania, the nation’s second-largest natural gas producer. During a debate in Philadelphia, Trump remarked, “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years.” Although Harris previously indicated support for a fracking ban during a CNN climate town hall in 2019, she has since claimed her stance has changed. In a recent debate, Harris asserted that she clearly opposed a fracking ban during her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence and referenced the Inflation Reduction Act, which opened new gas leases, reiterating her current position.

In Pennsylvania, the political landscape remains divided, with a Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, enjoying strong popularity, while Democrats hold control of the House and Republicans maintain a majority in the Senate. As both candidates prepare for the pivotal election ahead, Pennsylvania’s voters are poised to play a critical role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.