Trump Edges Ahead of Harris in Key Arizona Polls

A recent wave of polling reveals that former President Donald Trump maintains a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona as the 2024 election season intensifies. Arizona, long a critical swing state, has emerged as a battleground where both candidates are closely vying for voters in what looks to be a razor-thin race. The latest New York Times/Siena poll, released this past Sunday, puts Trump ahead by four percentage points, 49% to 45%, among likely Arizona voters—a notable margin that represents his largest lead in any swing state survey thus far. This lead falls within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error, suggesting a competitive race where small shifts could alter the outcome.

This result aligns with other recent surveys, underscoring Trump’s continued edge over Harris in Arizona. For instance, an October poll by the New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College showed Trump with a five-point advantage, 51% to 46%. This lead mirrored a similar margin in September, indicating a trend of Trump maintaining slight but steady support among Arizona voters. However, in the most recent Morning Consult poll released on the same day, the race between the two candidates was tied at 48%, underscoring just how tightly contested Arizona remains. Adding to the competition, a Cooperative Election Study poll sponsored by universities and conducted by YouGov found Trump leading 51% to 47% among likely Arizona voters, signaling that, while the polls vary, Trump’s slight lead in Arizona may be resilient.

Other polling organizations also find the race between Trump and Harris close, though outcomes vary slightly depending on the methodology and sample. A CNN/SSRS poll released this past Tuesday showed Harris ahead by a narrow margin, 48% to 47%, with a 4.4-point margin of error. In contrast, a Marist poll conducted with likely Arizona voters on October 24 found Trump narrowly leading 50% to 49%. Given the margin of error—4.4 points for CNN/SSRS and 3.7 points for Marist—both polls suggest the possibility of virtual ties, leaving little certainty about the candidates’ standing in Arizona.

Despite the tight race, Trump currently holds an overall 2.6-point advantage in Arizona according to the polling average from FiveThirtyEight, a respected poll aggregator. This advantage gives Trump a potential path to reclaim the state after narrowly losing it to President Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Biden’s victory in Arizona in 2020 marked a turning point, as he became the first Democratic candidate to carry the state since Bill Clinton in 1996. The narrowness of Biden’s win—a margin of only 10,457 votes—speaks to the volatility and unpredictability of Arizona’s electorate, where small shifts in support can be decisive.

Trump’s appeal to Arizona voters is largely grounded in issues like the economy and immigration, which remain central concerns in the state. According to the Times, Trump holds a slight advantage in Arizona on economic matters, particularly among voters who believe he would be more effective than Harris at addressing the needs of the working class. Trump also leads among Arizona voters who prioritize border security and immigration, an issue of major concern in the state given its proximity to the U.S.-Mexico border. Polls indicate that Arizona voters who see immigration as a critical issue tend to favor Trump, who has made border enforcement a central theme of his campaign.

However, Harris has found support among voters who prioritize issues such as abortion rights and the protection of democratic principles. In Arizona, where more than 30% of the population identifies as Hispanic or Latino, Harris also holds a lead among likely Latino voters. According to a CBS/YouGov poll, she is favored 56% to 42% within this demographic—a narrower margin than Biden’s lead among Latino voters in 2020, but nonetheless a key area of strength. Harris and her Democratic allies are hoping to maintain or expand support within the Latino community, as they see this group as critical to any winning coalition in Arizona.

Arizona’s 2024 election will also coincide with pivotal state ballot measures, which could influence voter turnout and engagement on both sides. One high-profile initiative, the Right to Abortion Initiative, aims to enshrine abortion rights in Arizona’s constitution, effectively safeguarding them in the state even if federal protections change. Democrats, including Harris, view this measure as a potential draw for voters who prioritize reproductive rights, and similar measures have proven successful in other states. Another ballot measure addresses immigration and border law enforcement, proposing that illegal border crossings become a state crime, thereby granting state police the authority to arrest migrants and potentially enabling state judges to deport them. Trump and his allies are backing this measure, as they believe it resonates with voters’ ongoing frustrations regarding illegal immigration in Arizona.

The heightened focus on immigration and border security underscores the critical nature of Arizona’s role as a border state, where residents have voiced concerns over the effects of illegal crossings. Local reports reveal that many Arizonans remain uneasy about what they perceive as insufficient federal action on the issue. Harris has voiced her opposition to stringent border measures, advocating instead for humane immigration reform, which she argues would address root causes of migration and improve conditions for asylum seekers. Trump, on the other hand, has doubled down on promises to crack down on immigration, positioning himself as the candidate who will “secure the border” and protect American interests.

The Trump-Harris battle in Arizona is reflective of their contest in several other battleground states, where polls show close margins. Trump, who won Arizona by a comfortable margin in 2016, has claimed victory in the state despite losing it in 2020, fueling ongoing debates and allegations of election irregularities. His statements sparked controversy, with Maricopa County officials, including Republican leaders, debunking his claims that voter data had been deleted or tampered with. Trump even reportedly attempted to persuade Arizona’s then-governor Doug Ducey to overturn the election outcome, although Ducey refused to take action.

As both candidates vie for Arizona’s valuable electoral votes, they face the challenge of engaging a highly diverse and politically divided electorate. Arizona’s swing-state status is further amplified by its demographics and regional issues, making it a critical state to watch as November 2024 approaches. For now, the polls suggest a slight lead for Trump, but with multiple factors at play, the race remains far from decided.