Front-Runners for Best Visual Effects at 2024 Oscars

As the 2024 cinema year wraps up with the holiday season, the excitement of award season builds, and one of the most anticipated categories for the upcoming Academy Awards is Best Visual Effects. This year’s contenders are diverse, showcasing a mix of strong nominees with impressive effects, and some notable history in play. There are, however, mild spoilers ahead regarding certain visual effects moments within the films discussed.

The Best Visual Effects category has long been a space where disagreements about which nominee is most deserving often coexist with a general consensus about the quality of the nominees overall. While there may be differing opinions on the top choice, the other nominees are often recognized for their merit. This category consistently features a range of approaches, with films employing practical effects, CGI, and those pushing the boundaries of visual effects technology. Recent years have shown a clear trend, which offers insight into what we can expect this year.

Last year, the Oscar for Best Visual Effects went to Godzilla Minus One, with VFX work from Takashi Yamazaki and Shirogumi Inc. earning widespread praise. The film was lauded for its stunning visuals and inventive effects, which helped it secure the award. Meanwhile, The Creator also received a nomination for its moderately budgeted yet innovative visual effects, earning a dedicated fanbase. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 represented the high-budget, CGI-heavy blockbuster category, marking the third consecutive nomination for the Marvel Studios trilogy. It was also the 14th nomination for the MCU, which has had a total of 27 Academy Award nominations in 16 years. Despite these numerous nominations, Marvel has only won four Oscars, all of which were for Black Panther and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Other notable contenders last year included Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, with its focus on practical effects, and Napoleon, which blended CGI with practical large-scale war scenes, reminding us how visual effects can be most impactful when they go unnoticed.

In 2022, Avatar: The Way of Water was the frontrunner with its groundbreaking visuals, while Black Panther: Wakanda Forever focused on CGI spectacle. Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front were also praised for their practical effects, and The Batman showcased a mix of practical and CGI work. The 2021 awards followed a similar pattern, with Dune winning the Best Visual Effects Oscar for its awe-inspiring sense of scale and hyper-realism. Spider-Man: No Way Home and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings were big-budget CGI contenders, and No Time to Die and Free Guy highlighted the use of practical and CGI effects in unique ways. While there have been occasional surprise winners and unexpected omissions in the past, the category generally tends to follow a predictable trend where the winner is clear, unless one film’s effects are so exceptional that it becomes undeniable.

Looking ahead to the 2024 Oscars, the Best Visual Effects category is shaping up to feature some strong contenders. Dune: Part Two is currently the frontrunner, with the primary effects company DNeg returning to deliver stunning visuals. The first Dune won the Oscar for Best Visual Effects, making the sequel’s nomination almost a certainty. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes also stands as a likely nominee, showcasing impressive motion capture performances and breathtaking visual effects to bring its post-apocalyptic world to life. This film continues the legacy of the Planet of the Apes franchise, which has been nominated for visual effects multiple times but never won. Meanwhile, Gladiator II, though receiving mixed reviews for its story, is widely praised for its visual spectacle, with standout moments like the flooding of the Colosseum likely earning it a nomination. Wicked is another strong contender, combining big-budget fantasy visuals with Disney’s tradition of stunning production design, costumes, and practical effects.

Other contenders include Alien: Romulus, which has surprised many with its exceptional visual effects, blending practical puppetry and animatronics with top-tier CGI. The revival of Ian Holm’s character, Ash, using cutting-edge VFX, adds to the film’s appeal. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga could still make an impact, though its visual effects aren’t as groundbreaking as those seen in its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road, making it a less likely nominee. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is another potential contender, but it faces stiff competition, and its chances of earning a nomination are slim compared to other films. Blitz, a historical drama set during World War II, also relies on practical effects with subtle CGI, but it may be overshadowed by larger contenders.

Ultimately, four films—Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Gladiator II, and Wicked—seem almost guaranteed to land nominations for Best Visual Effects. If one spot remains, Alien: Romulus could take it with its innovative mix of old-school effects and realistic CGI. Furiosa remains a strong contender, but Godzilla x Kong may be too much of a long shot to make the cut, with Blitz in the running only if a frontrunner falls short.

As for the winner, the race appears to be between Dune: Part Two and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Dune: Part Two benefits from the success of the first film, which already won the Oscar for Best Visual Effects, while Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes boasts a seamless integration of mo-cap CGI and practical effects. The latter film also has a compelling argument, as the Planet of the Apes franchise has been snubbed in the past, despite offering a unique and visionary approach to visual effects. If Dune: Part Two wins, it will likely be seen as a deserving continuation of the first film’s success. If Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes triumphs, it will be a long-awaited recognition of the franchise’s achievements, and that would be a victory I would personally welcome.