Can the Dacia Spring Drive Europe’s Electric Vehicle Revolution?

Europe is at a crucial juncture in its journey toward the electric vehicle (EV) revolution. Despite ambitious targets set by the European Union (EU), the mass adoption of electric cars faces significant challenges. One model, the Dacia Spring, might just be the spark needed to ignite a more affordable and accessible EV market for European consumers.

Produced by Renault’s value brand, Dacia, the Spring is Europe’s cheapest electric car, starting at just £14,995 ($19,100) after taxes. Made in China, the vehicle offers an affordable entry point into the world of electric mobility, with a price tag that is far below that of most other EVs in the market. As Europe grapples with the need to increase EV adoption to meet stringent emissions reduction targets, the Dacia Spring stands out as a potential game-changer.

However, EV sales in Europe have stagnated, jeopardizing the EU’s ambitious objectives. The European Union has set a goal for EVs to comprise 20% of the car market by 2024, with a meteoric rise to 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. Yet, despite the progress made so far, achieving these targets seems increasingly unlikely. According to French automotive consultancy Inovev, EV sales are expected to account for just 40% of the European market by 2030—well short of the 80% target. Inovev’s warning is clear: affordable EVs are essential if Europe is to reach its zero-emission goals.

Jamel Taganza, vice president of Inovev, has been vocal about the difficulties facing the transition to mass EV adoption. “Small and affordable EVs are a necessity for Europe if we want to reach the zero-emission objective in 2035,” he said, expressing skepticism about the feasibility of hitting the 2035 target. He further pointed out that political and economic factors in Europe could push this forecast even lower, making it harder to reach the EU’s aggressive goals.

While many European manufacturers promise to produce more affordable EVs, the reality is that prices remain high, with most electric vehicles starting around €30,000 ($31,500). Even with upcoming models such as the Citroen C-zero, Fiat Panda, and Renault Twingo electric, which are expected to launch in 2026, it seems unlikely that these cars will meet the sub-€20,000 ($21,000) price point required for mass-market adoption. This leaves a large gap in the market for cheaper EVs, similar to the ones found in China.

In China, there is a thriving market for no-frills, ultra-low-cost EVs, with some models priced under $10,000. These vehicles are designed for short trips, such as daily commutes and school runs, rather than high-speed or long-distance driving. Europe desperately needs similar vehicles to meet its targets. The Dacia Spring, with its affordable price and practical design, could be the blueprint for what the European market needs, but so far, it remains an exception rather than the rule.

The challenge facing European manufacturers is clear: most traditional automakers are focused on high-end EVs, leaving a void in the low-cost segment. Even German companies like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes are looking for ways to dilute the pressure from EU regulations. There have been discussions in Germany about maintaining the current rules but eliminating the fines for manufacturers that fail to meet the targets. This has sparked concerns among climate advocates who worry that such moves will slow the progress toward the zero-emission future.

In terms of sales projections, EV adoption in Europe is not on track to meet the EU’s targets. While 2024 is expected to see around 2 million EVs sold, this number needs to increase fourfold by 2030 to reach the target of 10 million units. Recent downgrades to sales forecasts indicate that this goal is becoming even more elusive. Investment research firm Jefferies recently slashed its 2030 forecast by over 2 million units, now predicting just 4.7 million EVs, a 35% market share, by the end of the decade. UBS has similarly reduced its forecast for 2030 European EV sales, from 9.6 million to 8.3 million, suggesting that the EV market may have reached a plateau.

Tim Dallmann from the International Council on Clean Transportation has highlighted the barriers preventing faster adoption of zero-emission vehicles. These include supply chain constraints, insufficient charging infrastructure, and policy uncertainty. In addition to these issues, a key factor holding back the mass adoption of EVs is the lack of affordable options.

With global climate targets such as the Paris Agreement’s goals on the line, Dallmann emphasized that achieving these objectives will require stronger policies, greater international cooperation, and increased incentives to boost demand for zero-emission vehicles. However, many European governments, particularly in Germany, are facing political pushback, as voters grow weary of the costs associated with net-zero policies. In the U.S., the new administration under former President Trump has shown clear support for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, further complicating global efforts.

For Europe to reach its ambitious goals, small, affordable EVs will be crucial. Yet, as Inovev’s Taganza points out, the volume of small EVs expected to come to market will likely fall short. To meet the EU’s targets, new players, particularly Chinese carmakers, will need to step in, despite the tariffs and challenges of entering the European market. Taganza is clear: “Europe cannot stop the development of Chinese carmakers in Europe, because we need them.”

Ultimately, if European manufacturers are unwilling or unable to produce basic, budget-friendly EVs—essentially just golf carts with doors and windows—outsiders may seize the opportunity. Taganza is skeptical that an outsider could develop a mass-market EV product for Europe due to the heavy capital required.

As the EU grapples with its climate goals, there is a growing sense that the 2035 objective will likely be watered down. The demand for affordable EVs is undeniable, and the Dacia Spring may serve as a glimpse into the future of European electric mobility. However, whether Europe can meet its emissions targets will depend on how quickly automakers can deliver affordable, practical EVs for the masses.