Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes to $210 Million Deal

The Arizona Diamondbacks made a major move late last night, securing one of the top pitchers on the free-agent market. They agreed to a six-year, $210 million contract with Corbin Burnes, a star starting pitcher formerly with the Milwaukee Brewers, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The deal includes an opt-out clause after the 2026 season, providing Burnes with the flexibility to explore free agency earlier if desired.

Burnes has established himself as one of Major League Baseball’s premier pitchers over the past several years. After being drafted by the Brewers in 2016, he spent six seasons with the team, quickly rising to prominence with his dominant performances on the mound. In 2021, Burnes earned the Cy Young Award, solidifying his status as one of the most formidable pitchers in the game. Over his career, Burnes has been a key part of the Brewers’ rotation, making four consecutive All-Star appearances from 2021 to 2024.

However, in a surprise move, the Brewers traded Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles last season, receiving prospects DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, and a draft pick in return. Burnes’ move to Baltimore was seen as a strategic decision for the Orioles, who were looking to bolster their pitching staff. Nevertheless, Burnes’ durability, consistency, and excellent performance on the mound remained key assets that continued to make him an attractive target for teams seeking a top-tier starting pitcher.

Over the past four seasons, Burnes has averaged 31 starts and 189 innings pitched per year with a solid 2.94 ERA. His ability to deliver quality innings season after season has made him one of the most reliable pitchers in the league. Burnes’ impressive track record is underscored by his durability and his reputation as a consistent force in any rotation.

Despite his outstanding resume, there are some concerns surrounding Burnes heading into his new contract with Arizona. Since his Cy Young-winning season in 2021, Burnes’ strikeout rate has shown a notable decline. His strikeout rate dropped from 35.6% in 2021 to 23.1% in 2024, well below his career peak. This sharp decline raises questions about whether Burnes can continue to dominate at the same level as he did in his earlier years, especially considering that the MLB average strikeout rate in 2023 was 22.6%, putting him just slightly above the league average.

Burnes’ reliance on his cutter as his primary pitch is a key factor in both his success and his recent struggles. He has used the cutter over 50% of the time from 2021 to 2023, and even more than 45% last season. While the cutter remains a strong pitch, it no longer generates the same number of swinging strikes that it did during his Cy Young campaign. Burnes’ drop in strikeouts has coincided with a shift toward using his slider and curveball more frequently, as he adapts to the changing dynamics of his pitching arsenal. This adjustment, which started during his time with the Orioles, seems to be part of a broader strategy to remain effective despite the declining effectiveness of his cutter.

The Diamondbacks, however, are undeterred by these potential red flags. Arizona has a history of signing big contracts for pitchers, both successful and unsuccessful. One of their most notable acquisitions was Randy Johnson, who signed a four-year deal in 1999 and went on to win four consecutive Cy Young Awards, leading the Diamondbacks to their only World Series title in 2001. In contrast, the team’s deal with Madison Bumgarner turned into a cautionary tale, as his five-year contract quickly became a disaster, culminating in his release in the fourth year of the deal. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are now free of Bumgarner’s contract obligations, which creates space in their payroll for Burnes’ hefty new deal.

Burnes will now join a rotation that has already been shaped by past free-agent acquisitions, including Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez. Both pitchers were signed by the Diamondbacks in previous years and have provided solid contributions to the team’s pitching staff. With Burnes on board, Arizona’s rotation becomes even more formidable, and the team’s hopes for contention in the National League have received a significant boost.

One potential fallout from Burnes’ arrival could be the fate of Jordan Montgomery, who was signed by the Diamondbacks in March for $25 million with a $22.5 million player option for 2025. Montgomery struggled last season with a 6.23 ERA, and his performance this year could see him relegated to the bullpen, as Burnes takes his place in the starting rotation.

Burnes’ departure from the Orioles will have a ripple effect, as they will now receive draft-pick compensation for losing him, following his decision to decline the team’s qualifying offer. The Orioles will now need to explore options to replace Burnes in their rotation, either by developing internal talent or looking to other free agents to bolster their pitching staff.

Arizona’s commitment to Burnes is a sign of their desire to remain competitive in the NL, particularly after coming so close to a playoff berth last season. The Diamondbacks finished 2023 with an 89-73 record, narrowly missing out on the postseason. Just one year earlier, the team made a remarkable run to the World Series after finishing the regular season with an 84-78 record. By adding Burnes to their rotation, Arizona is signaling that they are fully committed to staying competitive in an increasingly crowded National League playoff race.

Burnes’ signing will be key to the Diamondbacks’ success in the coming years. If he can regain his previous form and his cutter becomes more effective, Arizona’s rotation will be one of the strongest in the league. However, if his strikeout decline continues, it could become a significant issue for the team’s playoff aspirations. Either way, the Diamondbacks are betting big on Burnes and hoping that he can help propel them to the next level.