Friendly Fire and Drone Threats Disrupt Global Airspace

Over the past week, three very different incidents have drawn attention to a growing threat in airspace: the confusion between friendly aircraft and hostile drones, which can lead to disastrous consequences. From the Red Sea to Kazakhstan to New Jersey, the issue of deconfliction—distinguishing between friendly and enemy aircraft—has highlighted the increasing risks of modern warfare, where drones, often mistaken for manned aircraft, pose a new challenge for air defense systems. These incidents show that even with strict protocols in place, the complexity of modern warfare is causing costly mistakes.

The most straightforward incident occurred in the Red Sea, where the U.S. Navy’s F/A-18 fighter jet was downed due to what U.S. Central Command described as an “apparent case of friendly fire.” The jet, which had just taken off from the USS Harry Truman, was mistakenly targeted and shot down by the guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, which was part of the Truman carrier group. This occurred shortly after the group had been attacked by Houthi drones and at least one cruise missile, both of which had been intercepted successfully. Although military protocols usually require confirmation of targets to avoid such mistakes, this friendly fire incident was not isolated. Reports surfaced that a second F/A-18 was also targeted by Gettysburg and forced to perform evasive maneuvers to avoid an SM-2 missile. The missile narrowly missed the jet by about 100 feet. As a result, flight operations aboard the USS Harry Truman were suspended while the cause of the incidents was investigated. While no lives were lost in these incidents, the destruction of a $60 million aircraft and the temporary suspension of flight operations underscored the dangerous consequences of misidentifying aircraft. The challenges of distinguishing between manned jets and small drones, even with highly trained personnel, are more significant than one might imagine. The persistent threat of small, inexpensive drones, which are increasingly used by hostile forces, can cause severe disruptions, even if they are intercepted before causing direct damage.

Meanwhile, in a separate incident in the skies over Grozny, an Azeri flight, JS-8432, crashed after being hit by a Russian Pantsir S-1 air defense system. Azeri officials stated that the jet was shot down over Grozny, though Kremlin representatives have declined to comment until the investigation is complete. This is not the first time Russian forces have mistakenly targeted their own aircraft. In recent months, Russian forces have shot down their own planes, including a Ka-52 Alligator helicopter and an Su-25 attack jet. These incidents are likely the result of misidentifying the aircraft as Ukrainian one-way attack drones. Russia’s air defenses have been under pressure to respond to a series of successful drone strikes by Ukrainian forces. These drones, which have targeted Russian air bases, refineries, and other infrastructure, have become a significant threat. However, as Russia ramps up efforts to intercept more drones, the risk of friendly fire has also risen. Drones often evade detection by radar-guided missile systems, and when Russian defenses mistakenly target their own aircraft, the consequences are tragic. This morning, in an effort to prevent further incidents, Russia closed five airports in the region during a Ukrainian drone attack, including the one in Grozny, where the Azeri flight was reportedly shot down. These closures were part of efforts to avoid the repetition of friendly fire scenarios, but the larger issue remains unresolved: how to differentiate between friendly aircraft and hostile drones in contested airspace.

Closer to home, the situation in New Jersey has added another layer of complexity. A series of reports detailing sightings of unidentified drones in the area have caused alarm. The initial accounts suggested that there were large numbers of unknown drones flying over the state, but the claims quickly became clouded by conflicting reports. Some people speculated that the sightings were of legitimate commercial drones, while others suggested they were satellites, civilian airliners, or even drones operated by mysterious government agencies. The confusion surrounding the New Jersey sightings escalated to the White House, with some lawmakers and officials expressing frustration over the lack of action. President-elect Donald Trump even called for the drones to be shot down if they could not be positively identified. While the idea of shooting down unidentifiable drones may seem appealing to some, the risk of friendly fire, as seen in the Red Sea and Grozny, makes this a dangerous course of action. These mysterious drone sightings are not a new phenomenon. In 2020, reports surfaced of large numbers of drones repeatedly flying over U.S. nuclear power plants, and similar incidents have been documented over U.S. military bases and airfields. Given the size and sophistication of some of the drones involved, it’s clear that these incidents are not the work of casual hobbyists.

While the “shoot them down” approach may seem like a quick solution, the growing presence of drones in global airspace makes this a much more complicated issue. Drones, especially long-range attack drones, can be constructed by small teams with minimal resources, making them highly effective in modern warfare. Ukraine’s plans to produce 30,000 long-range drones in the coming year signal a massive increase in the threat level, with other nations likely to follow suit. The solution to this dilemma lies in comprehensive radar coverage and advanced air traffic control systems to track, identify, and categorize everything in the sky. However, as the situation in New Jersey shows, even with advanced technology, drones can still slip through detection systems. Moreover, as shown in the tragic incident with JS-8432, the consequences of a mistaken attack on a friendly aircraft can be catastrophic. As the world faces the growing complexity of airspace conflicts, the need for better deconfliction strategies, advanced identification systems, and greater international cooperation is clear. Drones, whether hostile or friendly, are here to stay, and the risks of misidentifying them will only continue to escalate.