Aviation Growth Trajectory Collides with Global Climate Ambitions, New Studies Warn

The aviation industry faces mounting scrutiny as recent studies reveal a stark contradiction between projected air travel growth and global climate objectives. Air passenger numbers are expected to more than double by 2050, leading to a concerning 59% increase in fuel consumption from 2019 levels, severely undermining the sector’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions.

The International Energy Agency reports that aviation demand has more than doubled since 2000, with both passenger and freight sectors showing robust growth despite temporary setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic. CO2 emissions from aviation have already reached 80% of their pre-pandemic peak and are projected to surpass 2019 levels by 2025.

Transport & Environment (T&E), a Brussels-based environmental group, has called for immediate action to curb this unsustainable growth. The organization advocates for limiting airport infrastructure expansion, reducing corporate travel, and implementing higher taxation on the sector. This comes as total commercial air passenger activity increased by approximately 70% in 2022, with international aviation leading the recovery at over 150% growth.

Adding to these concerns, recent research highlights the stark inequality in aviation emissions. Just 1% of the world’s population, classified as “super emitters,” is responsible for more than half of the global CO2 emissions from passenger air travel. These frequent flyers travel approximately 56,000km annually, while most of the world’s population doesn’t fly at all – with non-flyers making up 65% in Germany, 48% in the UK, and 53% in the USA.

The industry’s attempts to address these challenges through sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) face significant hurdles. While the EU has mandated a gradual increase in SAF usage, starting with 2% in 2025 and targeting 70% by 2050, current supply remains limited and prices are up to five times higher than traditional jet fuel.

The TAKE-OFF project, initiated under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program, offers some hope through its development of e-Sustainable Aviation Fuel (e-SAF). This innovative approach converts captured CO2, water, and renewable energy into synthetic fuel that can be used in existing aircraft without modifications. However, the transition to these sustainable alternatives faces economic challenges, as fuel costs already account for approximately one-third of total airline expenses.

Recent projections from Bain & Company indicate that global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) will reach 11.4 trillion by 2030, representing 136% of 2019 volumes. This growth trajectory poses a significant challenge to the aviation industry’s pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, a commitment made by ICAO member states in late 2022.

Environmental experts argue that without decisive action, the aviation sector’s environmental impact will continue to grow. The industry currently accounts for about 2.5% of global carbon emissions, and measures such as fuel efficiency improvements have not kept pace with demand growth, which increased at an average rate of over 5% annually between 2010 and 2019.

As the world grapples with these challenges, the need for a comprehensive approach combining technological innovation, regulatory reform, and demand management becomes increasingly apparent. The success of aviation’s sustainability transition will depend on balancing growth aspirations with environmental imperatives, requiring unprecedented collaboration between industry stakeholders, governments, and consumers.