Who Might Be Kamala Harris’s VP If She Takes Over from Biden?

As speculation swirls around the future of President Joe Biden’s candidacy, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the leading candidate to step in if Biden decides to withdraw from the race. This scenario, unprecedented in modern political history, would ignite a fierce competition among rising Democratic stars to become Harris’s running mate.

Currently, several prominent figures are being considered as potential vice-presidential picks. Governors who have been strong supporters of the Biden-Harris administration and enjoy high approval ratings in their home states are among the top contenders. California Governor Gavin Newsom has been a vocal defender of President Biden following the recent debate, where Biden’s performance was widely criticized. Newsom is slated to campaign for Biden in key states such as Pittsburgh and New Hampshire in the near future. However, Newsom, along with other potential candidates like Colorado Governor Jared Polis and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, might face challenges in the hypothetical VP race due to their representation of reliably Democratic states.

On the other hand, candidates like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro could be valuable picks for Harris. Both governors could strengthen the party’s position in crucial swing states where Biden is currently trailing former President Donald Trump. Despite winning Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2020, Biden’s recent polling suggests vulnerabilities in these key areas.

Whitmer, who has gained significant popularity in Michigan, holds a 10-point lead over Biden according to an October Emerson poll. Her leadership was instrumental in flipping both state legislative chambers to Democrats in 2022. Although Whitmer has publicly supported Biden and dismissed any notion of replacing him, her strong performance could make her an appealing choice for Harris.

Similarly, Shapiro has garnered impressive approval ratings in Pennsylvania, with a January Quinnipiac University poll showing him at 59% approval—higher than any Pennsylvania governor in recent memory. Shapiro’s bipartisan appeal, including approval from 36% of Republicans, contrasts with Biden’s 40% approval rating in the state. This broad support could be beneficial for Harris in securing Pennsylvania’s crucial electoral votes.

Another potential candidate is Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Warnock’s proven ability to secure victories in closely contested races and his strong support among Black voters in Georgia could make him a strategic choice for Harris, especially in a state that has become increasingly pivotal.

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are also potential candidates. Both have gained national recognition from their 2020 presidential campaigns and could bring valuable experience and visibility to Harris’s ticket.

If Biden were to step down, Harris would need to select a running mate before August 7. While parties typically finalize their nominees at their conventions—set to begin on August 19 in Chicago—the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is holding a virtual early roll call this year due to a modified Ohio law that originally required nominees to be finalized 90 days before the election. Despite the Ohio legislature extending this deadline, the early roll call will still influence the nomination process.

At this point, the possibility of Harris replacing Biden and subsequently selecting a running mate remains purely speculative. Biden has publicly stated his intention to continue his campaign, and Harris has expressed unwavering support for his candidacy, despite some Democratic calls for him to withdraw. However, there have been reports indicating that Biden is privately contemplating his future in the race, particularly if he cannot improve his campaign’s trajectory in the coming days. Biden’s upcoming holiday weekend activities, including a prime-time interview with ABC News and campaign stops in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, are being viewed as critical moments for his campaign’s success or failure.

Recent polling data shows that potential VP picks like Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Buttigieg, Pritzker, and Klobuchar all currently trail Trump in hypothetical matchups, according to a CNN/SSRS poll. However, these candidates generally perform better than Biden, who is trailing Trump by six points. Among them, Harris performs the best, trailing Trump by just two points.

In summary, if Vice President Kamala Harris were to become the Democratic nominee, the selection of her running mate would be a highly strategic decision. The choice could significantly impact the Democratic Party’s ability to compete in key swing states and improve their overall electoral prospects.