Harris: Top Biden Replacement and Her Chances Against Trump

Democrats are rallying behind Vice President Kamala Harris as a potential successor to President Joe Biden should he withdraw from the 2024 race. Harris, seen as a logical choice to step into Biden’s shoes, faces both opportunities and challenges in a potential showdown with former President Donald Trump.

Recent polls suggest Harris might have a stronger chance against Trump than Biden does. Some Democratic leaders are advocating for Harris as the best replacement option, noting that she currently enjoys higher approval ratings than Biden among Black and Hispanic voters—two crucial groups Biden has struggled with since his 2020 campaign.

Harris’ status as the incumbent vice president could also facilitate a smoother transition of campaign funds, as she is already on the ticket, potentially avoiding the complications of transferring resources to a new candidate.

However, Harris’ relatively low approval rating, currently at 37% according to FiveThirtyEight, raises concerns. This figure reflects broader dissatisfaction with the administration, as Biden’s approval numbers are similar. Critics argue that Harris has been notably absent from the public eye and has faced harsh reviews of her performance. A critical October New York Times profile highlighted her struggles to advocate for herself effectively, and a 2021 CNN report revealed tensions between Harris’ office and the White House.

Harris’ handling of immigration issues also sparked controversy. During a visit to Guatemala, she drew criticism from progressives for advising Guatemalans not to migrate to the U.S. Later, her dismissive response to NBC’s Lester Holt about not visiting the U.S. border provoked further backlash. An internal Politico report cited communication issues and a high staff turnover rate within Harris’ office, though her spokesperson has denied these claims.

Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign, when she was a California senator, was marked by underwhelming performance and strategic errors, leading to her exit before the primaries began. Additionally, her tenure as a prosecutor has been scrutinized for insufficient action on police misconduct and a high number of marijuana-related convictions during her time as California Attorney General.

Harris has attempted to address past criticisms by evolving her stance on criminal justice. She supported drug decriminalization in the Senate and advocated against jail time for marijuana possession when Biden pardoned individuals convicted of federal marijuana offenses in 2022. Despite her earlier support for increased police presence, she has since acknowledged that more officers do not necessarily equate to increased safety.

In recent surveys, Harris performed better against Trump compared to six other potential Biden replacements. According to CNN/SSRS, Harris trails Trump by two points, a smaller gap than Biden’s six-point deficit. While Trump leads in hypothetical matchups against other Democratic contenders, Harris could potentially help Biden regain lost support from Black and Hispanic voters. A June Politico/Morning Consult poll showed Harris with a 67% favorable rating among Black voters, compared to Biden’s 63%, and slightly higher favorability among Hispanic voters.

There is no clear consensus within the Democratic Party regarding Biden’s potential replacement, as he has committed to remaining in the race. However, discussions about Harris as his possible successor are gaining traction. Former Representative Tim Ryan has endorsed Harris and dismissed concerns about her losing to Trump as “utterly preposterous.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Representative James Clyburn have also voiced support for Harris, though Clyburn advocates for hearing from other potential candidates before making a final decision. Political observers suggest Biden’s endorsement of Harris as his successor would be seen as a politically necessary move, given the historic nature of her candidacy.

Harris’ supporters argue that much of the criticism she faces stems from sexism and racism. Former adviser Sen. Laphonza Butler has criticized the negative coverage, asserting that Harris deserves respect for her contributions and leadership. The White House has defended Harris, emphasizing her role as a crucial partner in addressing key national issues such as voting rights and broadband expansion.

Despite the growing talk of Harris as a replacement, Biden has firmly resisted calls to withdraw. In a recent interview, Biden reaffirmed his commitment to beating Trump and acknowledged past campaign mistakes. Though reports suggest Biden may privately consider stepping down if his campaign struggles continue, the White House has strongly denied such claims, and Harris and other Democrats continue to publicly support Biden.

Harris emphasized her commitment to Biden and the campaign in a recent call with staffers, stating, “We will not back down… we will follow our president’s lead. We will fight, and we will win… Joe Biden has devoted his life to fighting for the people of our country. In this moment, I know all of us are ready to fight for him.”