Harris and Trump in Tight Race as Polls Show National Lead Dips

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is tightening, with new surveys revealing a complex picture of voter sentiment just six weeks before the polls open. The latest findings indicate that Harris’s national lead has dipped slightly, reflecting a competitive landscape as both candidates vie for support.

According to Morning Consult’s latest weekly poll, released Tuesday, Harris holds a narrow five-point lead over Trump, with 50% of likely voters favoring her compared to 45% for Trump. This marks a decrease from the six-point lead Harris enjoyed just a week earlier, which was her widest margin in this polling series. However, in a positive development for Harris, her favorability rating has reached an all-time high of 53%, compared to Trump’s 45%.

The race appears to be exceptionally close in key battleground states. A CNN/SSRS survey shows Harris leading Trump by just one point, 48% to 47%. This is a slight improvement for Harris since she secured the Democratic nomination in July when Trump had a 49%-46% advantage among registered voters. Additionally, in a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from September 18-20, Harris maintained a four-point edge, at 52% to 48%, although her lead in crucial swing states has narrowed to a mere two points, at 51% to 49%.

Harris’s performance has seen significant improvement compared to previous polling. An NBC poll from September 13-17 indicated that she has a five-point lead over Trump among registered voters, at 49% to 44%. This shift reflects a notable change from July, when Trump led President Biden in similar polling at 45% to 43%. Another poll from the New York Times/Siena, released on September 19, showed Harris and Trump tied at 47%, yet it also revealed that 67% of voters rated Harris’s performance in the recent debate favorably, while only 40% felt the same about Trump.

Further reinforcing Harris’s standing, two polls from September 19 indicated slight advantages for her: a YouGov/Economist survey showing her up by four points (49% to 45%) among registered voters, and a Fox News poll indicating a narrow lead of two points (50% to 48%) among likely voters. This represents a modest shift from earlier polls, where Harris trailed or had minimal leads.

In a HarrisX survey conducted from September 11-13, Harris led Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, with 8% of voters undecided. This reflects a shift from an earlier HarrisX poll taken just before the recent debate, where both candidates were tied at 45% with 10% undecided. Monmouth University’s survey, also conducted around the same timeframe, indicated that 49% of registered voters were likely to support Harris, compared to 44% for Trump, mirroring trends from earlier this year.

Post-debate polling has been favorable for Harris as well. An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken just after the debate showed her leading by six points among likely voters and maintaining a five-point lead among registered voters, with 63% of Americans believing she won the debate. A subsequent Reuters/Ipsos poll also gave Harris a five-point advantage, demonstrating her increased favorability among voters following her debate performance.

Notably, Harris’s average lead across polls is approximately 2.3 points according to RealClearPolitics, while FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average places her lead at 2.7 points. Despite the slight decline in her national lead, Harris’s polling surge appears to have plateaued somewhat in recent weeks. For instance, a NPR/PBS/Marist survey taken from September 3-5 showed her leading Trump by just one point, illustrating the competitive nature of the race.

The dynamics in swing states, critical for securing the presidency, further complicate the picture. According to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, Harris holds a narrow two-point lead in key battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, individual state polling reveals a mixed picture: while Harris is competitive in several states, Trump has maintained leads in others, particularly in North Carolina and Georgia.

An interesting note is Harris’s diminishing deficit in Iowa, where she has narrowed Trump’s lead over Biden from 18 points in June to just four points in recent polling.

As the Democratic primary solidified around Harris following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race in late July, her campaign has gained significant momentum. The Democratic Party quickly rallied behind her candidacy, with 99% of delegates supporting her nomination during a virtual roll call. Harris has also selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, adding to the campaign’s appeal.

Looking ahead, the political landscape remains dynamic, and both candidates face unique challenges as they prepare for the upcoming election. With voter enthusiasm playing a crucial role—particularly among Democrats, whose excitement has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race—it is clear that the coming weeks will be critical in shaping the outcome of this closely contested election. As polls continue to fluctuate, the race between Harris and Trump promises to be one of the most closely watched in recent history.