Harris vs. Trump: A Close Contest as Polls Indicate Narrow Leads

The upcoming election is shaping up to be a fierce battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with recent polls indicating a highly competitive landscape just six weeks before voters head to the polls. A series of surveys conducted this month reveal that Harris holds a slight edge over Trump, with the latest results from the Economist/YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos polls showing her leading by three and six points, respectively. These findings reflect a broader trend, as four of the new polls released this week indicate Harris is ahead, while one shows Trump in the lead.

In the Economist/YouGov poll, Harris garners 47% support compared to Trump’s 44%. Meanwhile, the Reuters/Ipsos poll reports a more substantial lead for Harris, who is up six points. Additionally, the Morning Consult weekly poll, released on Tuesday, places Harris five points ahead at 50% to 45%. Although this marks a slight decrease from her previous six-point advantage—the widest she has held in Morning Consult polls—her favorability rating among likely voters has soared to a record high of 53%, surpassing Trump’s 45%.

When looking at specific battlegrounds, the race remains extremely close. A CNN/SSRS survey of likely voters shows Harris leading slightly at 48% to 47%, whereas a Quinnipiac poll reveals Trump ahead by the same narrow margin. Harris’s numbers have improved since she secured the party’s nomination in July when Trump led 49% to 46% among registered voters. However, her standing has fluctuated slightly in Quinnipiac’s polling over the past month, where she had been ahead at 49% to 47% in late August.

The CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from September 18-20 shows Harris with a four-point edge at 52% to 48% against Trump. In the crucial swing states that are likely to decide the election—namely Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—Harris’s lead narrows to just two points, at 51% to 49%. This indicates a marginal change from a month ago, when CBS and YouGov reported Harris leading by three points nationally and tied in swing states.

An NBC poll from September 13-17 presents Harris with a five-point lead among registered voters, now at 49% to 44%. This marks a significant improvement from the summer, where Trump held a slight edge over President Joe Biden at 45% to 43%.

Examining the overall landscape, RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average indicates that Harris leads Trump by 2.1 points, while FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average presents her with a slightly larger lead of 2.6 points. However, pre-debate surveys suggest that Harris’s polling momentum has somewhat plateaued. A NPR/PBS/Marist survey conducted from September 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump by just one point, down from her three-point lead in August. Similarly, an Emerson College survey revealed Harris up by two points, representing a decline from her four-point lead in August.

As the candidates engage in debates, initial reactions from post-debate surveys indicate that a majority of respondents believe Harris performed better. A New York Times/Siena poll released on September 19 found that a significant majority of voters across various demographics rated Harris’s performance favorably, with 67% stating she did well in the debate, compared to only 40% who felt the same about Trump. The poll also revealed that Harris and Trump are tied at 47%. In two additional polls from the same date, Harris held a slight advantage—up by four points in a YouGov/Economist survey and two points in a Fox News likely voter survey.

Harris has also shown strength in key swing states, leading Trump by two points overall in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey taken from August 23-27. In that survey, Harris was ahead in six of the seven states, while the candidates were tied in Arizona. However, a new New York Times/Siena poll noted that Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris holds an advantage in Pennsylvania.

In a related note, Harris has managed to significantly reduce Trump’s lead in Iowa, closing the gap from 18 points in June to just four points in a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll.

Key background to the current political climate includes Biden’s decision to drop out of the race on July 21 following intense pressure within the Democratic Party due to his performance in the June 27 debate. Biden endorsed Harris, leading to her swift consolidation of support, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to nominate her during the virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Shortly after, Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, a strategic move following Trump’s announcement of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential pick.

The first debate between Harris and Trump took place on September 10 in Philadelphia, and many pundits, including prominent political analysts, deemed Harris the winner for her ability to challenge Trump and steer the conversation effectively. Harris’s ascent in the polls is reflective of a growing enthusiasm among Democratic voters, which has nearly doubled since she entered the race—from 46% in June to 85% now. In contrast, enthusiasm among Republican voters remains stable at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released on August 14.

As the election approaches, both candidates will need to harness their strengths and address their weaknesses in what is sure to be a contentious and closely watched contest. The coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the narrative leading into the November elections, making the stakes higher than ever for both Harris and Trump.