Trump Campaign Sees Potential in Abortion Ballot Measures

In a notable twist to the upcoming elections, the Trump campaign suggests that ballot measures concerning abortion rights could unexpectedly bolster former President Donald Trump’s candidacy. Speaking to The Washington Post, political director James Blair expressed optimism that these measures might appeal to Republican voters who support abortion rights while simultaneously backing Trump, even as Democrats aim to leverage the situation to their advantage.

In the upcoming general election, voters in ten states will be presented with ballot measures addressing the protection of abortion rights, with crucial battleground states like Arizona, Florida, and Nevada prominently featuring these issues. Blair believes that these measures could be beneficial for Republicans, as they provide voters a means to support abortion rights without compromising their presidential vote. This aligns with Trump’s public stance of preferring to delegate decisions on abortion to individual states rather than impose national mandates.

Historically, Democrats have capitalized on the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June 2022. The ruling has galvanized Democratic voters who favor abortion rights, often leading to electoral victories where this issue has taken center stage. This year, Democrats are intent on using the abortion ballot measures as a strategy to increase voter turnout among their base. However, polling indicates that many voters might be inclined to split their ticket—supporting abortion rights while still favoring Trump.

Recent polls underscore this potential split in voter sentiment. For instance, a September Fox News poll from Arizona revealed Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 49% to 47%, despite a remarkable 72% of voters supporting the state’s abortion ballot measure. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump with a four-point advantage over Harris (49% to 45%), while 58% of Arizonans expressed support for the abortion measure. In Florida, a Hill/Emerson College poll found Trump leading, even as the abortion ballot measure enjoyed 55% backing. In Nevada, although Harris edged Trump out 48% to 46%, the abortion measure commanded an impressive 75% approval rating.

Interestingly, while polling indicates that voters may favor Trump, they also exhibit a trust in Harris regarding abortion-related issues. According to Fox News, a majority—56%—of Arizona respondents trusted Harris more on handling abortion matters, despite their overall preference for Trump. This sentiment was echoed in the New York Times/Siena College poll, where 53% of Arizona voters preferred Harris on abortion. A broader Fox News poll in August revealed that 58% of voters from key states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, favored Harris on abortion, yet only 48% indicated they would support her in the presidential race compared to 47% for Trump.

While Democrats maintain a hopeful outlook regarding abortion ballot measures bolstering their candidates in key races, the situation may have nuanced implications. Politico reports that abortion measures might also influence voter engagement in future elections. In Michigan, for example, where abortion was legalized through a ballot measure in 2022, some pro-abortion rights voters reportedly lack urgency this election cycle, perceiving their rights as secure. A KFF poll conducted in July revealed that 60% of Michigan women view abortion’s legality as a “settled” issue. This has led some Democratic candidates to argue that reproductive rights could still be at risk if Trump wins, as they claim he would seek to impose national restrictions overriding state measures.

Democrats continue to assert that abortion ballot measures will be advantageous for their candidates. Senator Gary Peters of Michigan, who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, emphasized that where abortion measures appear on the ballot, voter turnout among those who prioritize reproductive freedom tends to increase. He noted, “Folks who turn out understand that the Republican candidates tend to be diametrically opposed to that—and so they vote for the referendum and they vote for the Democratic candidate.”

The race between Harris and Trump remains tightly contested, with polling indicating a close race. While there is strong support for abortion ballot measures advocating reproductive rights, it is uncertain how these measures will perform in the upcoming election. Notably, Florida’s abortion ballot measure necessitates a supermajority of 60% to pass, posing a significant challenge compared to other states that require only a simple majority.

One of the central uncertainties surrounding this election is Trump’s actual stance on abortion if he were to regain the presidency. Despite his repeated claims of opposing a national abortion ban, skepticism remains among Democrats. Anti-abortion advocates have shifted their rhetoric towards promoting “national minimum standards” instead of outright bans, which could circumvent the unpopularity associated with strict abortion restrictions. As of now, the Trump campaign has not clarified whether he supports the idea of a “national minimum standard.” Nevertheless, anti-abortion groups continue to lobby for national restrictions, despite Trump’s stated preference for state governance on the issue. Furthermore, while the GOP’s national platform does not explicitly call for a national ban, it does endorse granting constitutional rights to fetuses, which would effectively outlaw abortion.

The Supreme Court’s ruling on Roe v. Wade has undeniably transformed abortion into a pivotal electoral issue. For Democrats, the ability to mobilize their base through abortion rights has become a cornerstone of their campaign strategy. As they prepare for the upcoming election, abortion ballot measures are seen as crucial to harnessing public support and safeguarding access in states where Republican leadership prevails. In this landscape, candidates on both sides of the aisle are adapting their messages and strategies in response to the evolving perceptions of abortion rights among voters, setting the stage for a fiercely contested election ahead.