North Carolina 2024: Trump and Harris in a Tight Race

In the battleground state of North Carolina, Vice President Kamala Harris is attempting to achieve a significant milestone in the upcoming 2024 presidential election: becoming only the second Democratic candidate to win the state in over 40 years. The latest polls indicate a fiercely competitive race, with former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead in two recent surveys while Harris claims a slight edge in a third.

According to a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday, Harris has garnered support from 48% of likely voters, compared to Trump’s 47%, though the margin of error is 4.5 points, suggesting that the race remains very close. In contrast, a Fox News poll published on Wednesday shows Trump with a 49%-47% advantage over Harris among likely voters, while 4% indicated support for a third-party candidate. However, in a two-way match-up, Trump’s lead diminishes to just one point, at 50%-49%, which also falls within the poll’s margin of error.

Further evidence of the tight race comes from a Cooperative Election Study poll, which indicates Trump leading with 50% to Harris’s 48%. This large national survey, conducted by YouGov and including 2,308 respondents, aligns with other recent polling data that shows Trump consistently edging Harris out. Notably, both a Marist poll and an Emerson poll conducted last week found Trump leading by identical margins of 50% to 48%. Additionally, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released on October 23 reveals Trump ahead by a slim margin of 49.6% to 48.5%, with all these figures staying within their respective surveys’ margins of error.

Recent polling trends indicate Trump’s strength in North Carolina, with a Washington Post-Schar School poll from last week showing him leading Harris by 50% to 47%. This is within the 3.9-point margin of error. However, a Quinnipiac poll released on October 16 presented a different narrative, with Harris leading by 49% to 47%, reversing Trump’s previous lead from two weeks earlier.

Two additional polls have further established Trump’s edge: a Wall Street Journal poll from October 11 showed him leading 46% to 45%, and an Emerson College poll from October 10 indicated a 49%-48% lead for Trump, following a previous September poll that had Harris leading 49%-48%. According to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average, Trump is currently ahead by 1.2 points.

In light of these fluctuations, the Cook Political Report recently shifted North Carolina’s status from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up.” This change reflects a growing competitiveness in the state, which analysts attribute in part to Harris’s entry into the race. The latest Cook survey indicates a tie between Harris and Trump, following Harris’s slight lead in August.

An interesting dynamic arises from Harris’s potential success in North Carolina. Political analyst Nate Silver’s Voter Power Index suggests that if she secures the state, she has a nearly 90% chance of winning the overall election. Conversely, Trump would have an upward of an 80% chance of winning the electoral college if he prevails in North Carolina.

Historically, North Carolina has not been a friendly territory for Democrats; since 1980, only Barack Obama has managed to win the state, accomplishing this feat in 2008. However, the state’s political landscape has evolved, primarily due to an influx of new voters who typically lean Democratic. This shift has been particularly pronounced around the “Research Triangle” area of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, which has experienced a population growth of 5.6% since 2020. This region hosts three major research universities—Duke University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and North Carolina State University—catalyzing growth in high-tech and life sciences industries and establishing it as one of the fastest-growing areas in the nation.

Furthermore, a study by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill highlights a significant increase in the percentage of North Carolinians holding a bachelor’s degree, rising by 1.4 million since 1990. This demographic trend tends to favor Democratic candidates, potentially benefiting Harris as the election approaches.

Looking ahead, it will be crucial to observe whether controversies surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, could negatively impact Trump’s standing in the state. Trump’s endorsement of Robinson came before reports surfaced detailing a series of derogatory comments he allegedly made in a pornographic chat forum. Following these revelations, Democratic candidate Josh Stein has expanded his lead over Robinson, with some polls showing a gap of as much as 19 points. While a CNN/SSRS poll indicated a tie between Trump and Harris, it is yet to be seen if Robinson’s scandals will affect Trump’s prospects. Historically, down-ballot candidate issues rarely drag down their party’s presidential candidate, according to CNN.

In terms of electoral stakes, North Carolina holds significant importance, possessing 16 electoral college votes, a number that increased following the 2020 census, making it the eighth most electoral votes in the nation, tied with Georgia. Despite the electorate’s increasingly Democratic tendencies, Republicans currently maintain a supermajority in both chambers of the state legislature, allowing them to override vetoes from Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

As the 2024 election draws near, the battle for North Carolina will be one to watch closely, with both candidates keenly aware of the stakes involved in winning this pivotal state.