Post-Trump Conviction Polls: Warning Signs for Republicans

In the wake of former President Donald Trump’s conviction on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his hush money case, new polls indicate potential challenges for the Republican Party. A survey conducted by Morning Consult revealed that nearly half of Independents are calling for Trump to abandon his 2024 campaign. This sentiment follows a previous poll showing other warning signs for the Republican candidate.

According to the latest poll, 54% of registered voters either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the guilty verdict. While 49% suggest probation as Trump’s sentence, over 44% advocate for a prison term (68% favor a fine). Among Independents, 49% believe Trump should withdraw from the presidential race, a sentiment echoed by 15% of likely Republican voters and 8% of self-proclaimed Trump supporters.

In a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted immediately after the guilty verdict, 56% of Republican voters indicated that the conviction would not change their vote. However, 35% expressed an increased inclination to vote for Trump post-verdict. Conversely, 10% of Republicans stated they were less likely to support him, along with a quarter of Independent voters who shared the sentiment.

Despite these findings, a significant number of GOP voters (77%) and some Independents (43%) view Trump’s conviction as politically motivated, according to the Morning Consult poll.

Trump’s conviction, related to a reimbursement for hush money paid to Stormy Daniels, comes amid ongoing legal challenges since he launched his 2024 presidential campaign. Polling data suggests these cases could impact his electoral prospects. In an April Quinnipiac poll, 46% of respondents believed Trump had committed a crime by concealing hush money payments. Similarly, an April New York Times/Siena poll indicated that 46% of respondents thought Trump should be found guilty in the hush money case. In a May AP/Norc poll, roughly half of respondents said Trump would be unfit for office if convicted in New York.

Despite a neck-and-neck race with President Joe Biden in recent polls, Trump’s path to victory could be complicated by third-party candidates. A NPR/PBS/Marist poll showed Biden leading Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup, but with third-party candidates included, Trump would edge out Biden by four points. Biden also appears to be losing support in key swing states, with a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, six of which Biden narrowly won in 2020.

Trump, who denies the affair with Daniels, has denounced the case as a “witch hunt” and plans to appeal the conviction, facing a potential sentence of up to 136 years and $170,000 in fines.