Poll: RFK Jr.’s Candidacy Impact Differs for Trump and Biden

A recent survey suggests that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy could have a more significant impact on former President Donald Trump than on President Joe Biden. Contrary to previous polls indicating Kennedy Jr. could pose a greater threat to Biden, the new survey indicates that Biden leads Trump by two points when Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West are included in the ballot. However, Biden trails Trump by two points in a head-to-head matchup.

The survey, conducted by NBC from April 12 to 16 with 1,000 registered voters, found that 15% of voters who would choose Trump in a two-way race would switch their vote to Kennedy Jr. in a five-way contest, compared to 7% of Biden voters. Additionally, more Republicans (40%) view Kennedy Jr. favorably compared to Democrats (16%).

These findings contradict previous polls, including a November survey by Siena College of voters in six battleground states and a February poll by Quinnipiac University. The Siena College poll suggested Democrats were more likely to support Kennedy Jr. than Republicans, while the Quinnipiac University poll indicated that Biden would lose 11 points with the three independent candidates on the ballot, while Trump would lose eight.

Kennedy Jr. is set to appear on the ballot in at least two states, Utah and Michigan, a crucial swing state for Biden’s re-election prospects. Independent candidates must petition for ballot access, and Kennedy Jr.’s campaign claims to have collected enough signatures to appear on the ballot in Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, pending verification by the states.

In a surprising turn, voter interest in the 2024 election has reached a 20-year low, according to the NBC poll. Only 64% of voters expressed being “very interested” in this year’s election, compared to 77% in July 2020 and 69% in May 2016.

On a related note, more than a dozen Kennedy family members, including six of RFK Jr.’s siblings, endorsed Biden earlier this month. RFK Jr.’s family has distanced themselves from him over the years due to his promotion of Covid-19 conspiracies and his advocacy against vaccines for children.

In the backdrop of the election, Biden and Trump are engaged in a closely contested race, with Trump leading Biden by just 0.4 percentage points according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Biden has recently seen a slight polling boost following his March State of the Union address and increased campaign activity, while Trump has been preoccupied with his legal issues, using them to suggest, without evidence, that prosecutors and judges are biased against him and in favor of Biden.