2024 Election Polls: Trump’s Conviction Has Minimal Impact

In the latest survey results regarding the 2024 election, most voters seem unaffected by former President Donald Trump’s hush money conviction, as per a CBS/YouGov poll. The poll indicates that 55% of likely voters do not consider Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records as a factor in their voting decisions. Instead, issues like the economy, crime, and border control rank higher in importance.

Despite the conviction, other surveys suggest that Trump has not experienced a significant loss of support. For example, a Times/Siena survey found that Trump leads Biden by 47% to 46%, with only a one-point decline for Trump and a one-point increase for Biden among the same group of 2,000 voters polled in April and May before the conviction.

An Emerson College survey shows that Trump’s support has remained steady, while Biden’s support has increased by one point since the conviction. However, when third-party candidates are included, Trump’s lead widens to six points.

In terms of polling averages, RealClearPolitics indicates that Trump leads Biden by 0.8 percentage points in a two-way race, but this lead increases to two points when third-party candidates are included.

In the crucial swing states that are likely to decide the election, such as Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, polls consistently show that Trump leads Biden. For example, a May Cook Political Report survey found that Trump is up by an average of three points in these seven states.

Despite the closeness of the race, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to influence the outcome, although it’s unclear in whose favor. Surveys suggest that Kennedy Jr. draws votes from key Biden supporters, particularly among voters between the ages of 18 and 29 and Hispanic voters.

It’s worth noting that polls may be skewed in Trump’s favor by disengaged voters who may not participate in the 2024 election, according to a New York Times analysis. Additionally, polls have consistently indicated that Biden—and the Democratic Party as a whole—have been losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters.

Overall, both Biden and Trump have relatively low favorability ratings, and historically low voter enthusiasm has been observed. Trump has centered his campaign around his legal issues, while Biden has focused on portraying Trump as a threat to democracy. The economy, immigration, abortion, and inflation are consistently top issues for voters, with Trump being trusted more on the economy, crime, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while Biden is trusted more on abortion.