Why Michelle Obama Won’t Replace Biden Despite Leading Polls

A recent poll indicates substantial voter support for a presidential bid by former First Lady Michelle Obama, despite her firm denials of any political ambitions. This comes as analysts and a growing number of Democrats urge President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race following his poor debate performance last week. Michelle Obama, wife of former President Barack Obama, was the only Democrat to surpass former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical November matchup, according to a Reuters-Ipsos poll released Tuesday. She led Trump decisively, 50% to 39%.

Meanwhile, Biden was tied with Trump at 40% in the Ipsos poll. Vice President Kamala Harris trailed Trump 43%-42%, California Governor Gavin Newsom trailed 42%-39%, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer lagged behind, with Trump polling 41% compared to her 36%.

Michelle Obama has enjoyed high approval ratings for over a decade. A 2011 Quinnipiac University poll found over three-fifths of voters viewed her positively, surpassing her husband during his first term (56.5%) and former President Bill Clinton (59.2%).

Despite her White House tenure, advocacy for healthy eating and wealth inequality, and her bestselling memoir “Becoming,” Michelle Obama has consistently rejected the idea of a presidential run. In 2017, she unequivocally stated, “No, nope, not going to do it.” She reinforced this stance in 2019, urging voters to support Biden, despite a political action committee pushing for her as Biden’s vice-presidential pick.

Speculation about a Michelle Obama presidential run and a potential Biden-Obama ticket grew in March. CNN commentator Alisyn Camerota suggested an Obama vice-presidential pick, and multiple outlets reported that Democrats were quietly considering a Michelle Obama campaign due to concerns over Biden’s age. However, Obama reiterated her lack of interest in a presidential run in a statement to NBC News.

Despite Michelle Obama’s repeated refusals, some bettors remain hopeful. Betting platform Polymarket gives her a 6% chance of being the 2024 Democratic nominee, higher than figures like California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has 5% odds.

Biden’s advanced age and health have been ongoing concerns throughout his presidency, exacerbated by Trump’s frequent criticisms of his mental and physical abilities. These concerns intensified following Biden’s incoherent and hoarse performance during last week’s CNN debate. Biden admitted he doesn’t debate as well as he used to but insisted on staying in the race, even as Democratic pundits and lawmakers called for him to step down. The New York Times reported that Biden privately acknowledged he might drop out if he performs poorly in an upcoming interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos, although the Biden administration denied this report. Democratic Representatives Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) and Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) have publicly called for Biden to end his campaign, joined by editorial boards of major publications like The New York Times and Chicago Tribune.

A post-debate CNN/SRRS poll found Harris trailing Trump 47%-45%, a better performance than Biden (six-point deficit to Trump), Whitmer (five-point deficit), Newsom (five-point deficit), and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (four-point deficit). According to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average, Biden trails Trump by nearly two points (41.9% to 39.8%) in a potential November rematch. However, a Harris candidacy might also pose challenges for Democrats, given her low approval rating of 37.5%, just slightly above Biden’s 37.2%.