‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Trail ‘Barbenheimer’ Success

“Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” two of the most eagerly anticipated films of the year, made their debut on Friday, marking a significant moment for the fall box office. Both films generated strong earnings during Thursday previews, with “Wicked” grossing $11 million and “Gladiator II” bringing in $6.5 million domestically. While these numbers reflect solid performances, they fell short of the Thursday preview totals achieved by last year’s blockbuster pair, “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.” Those two films, which dominated the summer of 2023, earned $22.3 million and $10.5 million, respectively, during their Thursday previews, setting a high bar for subsequent releases.

The buzz surrounding “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” stems partly from comparisons to the cultural phenomenon of “Barbenheimer.” The two films are similar in their dynamic pairing of contrasting genres, with one targeting a primarily female audience and the other appealing to a male demographic. “Wicked,” starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, is a vibrant musical adaptation of the hit Broadway show, chronicling the friendship and eventual divergence of two witches, Elphaba and Glinda, at Shiz University. On the other hand, “Gladiator II,” featuring Pedro Pascal and Paul Mescal, serves as a sequel to the Oscar-winning 2000 film, following Lucius as he seeks to restore Rome’s glory after years of oppressive rule.

Despite their differing appeals, both films have been well-received by critics, adding to the anticipation. “Wicked” holds an impressive 89% score on Rotten Tomatoes, while “Gladiator II” maintains a respectable 72%. Their early box office projections reflect strong interest, with “Wicked” expected to gross between $100 million and $110 million in its opening weekend, potentially securing the third-best debut of the year. Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” is on track to earn around $65 million in its opening weekend, a solid figure that nonetheless highlights the challenge of competing with the unprecedented success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” which amassed $1.4 billion and $976 million globally, respectively.

Awards season buzz has already begun for both films, with industry insiders predicting multiple Academy Award nominations. “Wicked” is expected to excel in categories related to music and technical achievement, while “Gladiator II” is anticipated to shine in acting and cinematography. Both movies are seen as strong contenders for Best Picture nominations, bolstered by their impressive casts and the reputation of their filmmakers.

The release of “Wicked” also marks a milestone for Broadway adaptations. If its opening weekend meets projections, it will surpass the $31 million debut of 2014’s “Into the Woods,” currently the highest-grossing opening for a film based on a Broadway show. The enduring popularity of “Wicked” as a stage production, combined with the star power of Grande and Erivo, has played a significant role in its early box office success.

Promotional efforts for both films have added to the excitement, particularly for “Wicked,” whose stars have gone viral during their press tour. Fans and social media users have shared clips of emotional interviews, including one where Grande and Erivo reflected on the cultural impact of the song “Defying Gravity.” Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” has capitalized on the legacy of its predecessor and the commanding presence of its lead actors to generate interest.

This year’s box office landscape has been dominated by major hits like “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which earned $211.4 million in its opening weekend, and “Inside Out 2,” which brought in $154 million. While “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” may not achieve those heights, their early performances demonstrate the continued strength of blockbuster filmmaking. Even if they fall short of matching the cultural and financial impact of “Barbenheimer,” both films are poised to leave a lasting mark on 2024’s cinematic landscape.