Opinion: Analysis Predicts Growing Pressure on Vladimir Putin

An opinion analysis argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing mounting political and military pressure as the war in Ukraine continues to reshape the country’s internal and external challenges. The article contends that repeated Ukrainian drone strikes have significantly disrupted fuel supplies to Crimea, leaving the Kerch Bridge as a crucial remaining route. Citing unnamed sources within Ukrainian intelligence, the analysis claims a major strike targeting the bridge could be imminent, though no independent confirmation is provided.

The commentary states that beyond battlefield developments, public perception has become increasingly important. It argues that continued military setbacks and visible disruptions inside Russia are weakening Putin’s credibility, which it describes as a key pillar of his political legitimacy. According to the analysis, worsening conditions could accelerate domestic dissatisfaction with the Kremlin’s handling of the conflict.

The article also highlights recent signs of internal unrest, pointing to Russian military blogger Aleksandr Lunin, who published videos warning of possible mutiny and requesting a televised meeting with Putin. The analysis says one of the videos attracted approximately 11 million views before Lunin was later jailed. It also references videos allegedly showing soldiers threatening their commanding officers and draws comparisons with the 2023 rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

According to the commentary, videos circulating online reportedly show Ukrainian strikes on military, energy and fuel facilities across Russia, alongside scenes of fuel shortages and forced military recruitment in some regions. The author argues these developments have fueled growing public frustration and questions about Russia’s military leadership.

The analysis draws historical comparisons with the collapse of the Russian Empire following World War I and the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, suggesting that failed foreign military campaigns have previously contributed to major political change in Moscow. It argues that members of Russia’s political elite could eventually act to protect their own positions if they believe Putin’s leadership has become a liability.

The opinion piece also examines Russia’s extensive internal security structure, including the Federal Security Service (FSB), Rosgvardia, Interior Ministry troops and presidential security units. It suggests that competing loyalties among these organizations could create the conditions for internal conflict if a succession crisis develops.

Several possible scenarios for Putin’s departure are discussed, ranging from a rapid removal to a public trial intended to place responsibility for the war on the president while preserving the broader political system. The article compares one such possibility to the overthrow and execution of Romanian leader Nicolae Ceaușescu in 1989.

The analysis also points to the June 26 death of Sergei Ivanov, a longtime Putin ally and former senior Kremlin official once viewed as a possible successor. It notes that the Kremlin announced his death at the age of 73 without disclosing a cause, arguing that such events may heighten uncertainty among Russia’s political elite.

According to the commentary, future developments that could increase pressure on Putin include additional Ukrainian attacks, food shortages, separatist movements in regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortistan and Chechnya, military action in Crimea, or changes in China’s support for Russia. The article notes that China has already declined to finance the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline and argues Beijing’s future decisions could influence Russia’s political trajectory.

The opinion concludes that if current trends continue or worsen, Putin could be removed from power within the next three years. The analysis reflects the author’s interpretation of events and forecasts rather than established outcomes.